银河证券每日晨报-20250704

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The U.S. Senate passed the modified "Big Beautiful Act" with a narrow margin, which will increase the deficit to 7% during Trump's term [2][3][4] - The updated version of the fiscal bill is projected to increase the deficit by $4 trillion over the next ten years, with long-term implications potentially raising it to $5.5 trillion if tax cuts are made permanent [3][4] - The long-term debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 126% by 2034, indicating increasing fiscal pressure [4][7] Group 2: Marine Economy and Communication - The Chinese government has prioritized the development of the marine economy, with policies aimed at enhancing marine industries such as marine electronic information and offshore wind power [9][10] - The domestic marine production value is projected to reach 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.9%, indicating significant potential in the marine sector [10] - The global submarine cable market is expected to grow from $21 billion in 2024 to $68 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of approximately 15.8% [10] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Kangtai Biological's PCV13 vaccine has received GMP certification from Turkey, marking a significant step in its overseas expansion [15][16] - The company has established partnerships in over ten countries for the registration and commercialization of various vaccines, with overseas revenue expected to grow significantly [16][18] - Midea Group's revenue for Q1 2025 was 127.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, with expectations of maintaining steady growth despite industry headwinds [21][24] Group 4: Industry Trends and Challenges - The home appliance industry is facing a downturn, but Midea Group is expected to maintain growth due to its competitive advantages and high dividend yield [21][24] - The company is adapting to U.S. tariff policies, which have negatively impacted exports, but it is expected to gradually adjust its global production capacity [22][23] - The industrial business, particularly in HVAC and related fields, is showing strong growth potential, supported by strategic acquisitions [23][24]