光大期货金融期货日报-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share index: Expected to be volatile. The market is pricing in interest rate cuts in advance, and the A-share market has been boosted. However, A-share valuations are above the historical average, making it difficult for the market to rise significantly. The stablecoin concept is popular, but the path for stablecoins to replace the US dollar as a trading medium is still long. Domestically, credit contraction and insufficient demand remain the main contradictions, and although corporate profits improved in H1 2025, the index is unlikely to break through the central level significantly. On the other hand, it is also unlikely to experience a sharp decline in the short term [1]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - term bond market will continue its volatile pattern. Treasury bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.02%, the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts up 0.01%, and the 10 - year main contract basically stable. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan. The inter - bank market interest rates declined. The central bank's liquidity injection in June totaled 65.6 billion yuan, and the economy showed strong resilience in June, with monetary policy emphasizing flexible adjustment [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - A - share Index Futures: Fed Chairman's remarks and dot - plot have led the market to price in interest rate cuts in advance, boosting the A - share market. But A - share valuations are high, and the stablecoin concept is popular. Domestically, 6 - month manufacturing PMI rose but remained in the contraction range, 5 - month PPI declined year - on - year, and new RMB loans decreased. Corporate profits improved in H1 2025, so the index is expected to be volatile [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures had different performances. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation led to a net withdrawal of funds. Inter - bank market interest rates declined. The central bank's liquidity injection in June and the economic resilience in June suggest a continued volatile pattern in the short - term bond market [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On July 3, 2025, compared with July 2, 2025, IH rose 0.19%, IF rose 0.61%, IC rose 0.30%, IM rose 0.31%, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.07%, the CSI 300 rose 0.62%, the CSI 500 rose 0.50%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.53% [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On July 3, 2025, compared with July 2, 2025, TS was flat, TF was flat, T fell 0.02%, and TL fell 0.04% [3]. 3.3 Market News - One lithium - salt smelter in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan, initially planning to stop production for 2 months, while a lithium - salt smelter in Sichuan is operating normally [4]. - The Caixin China Services PMI in June dropped to 50.6, the lowest since October 2024, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of the service industry [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Multiple charts display the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17]. - Exchange Rates: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates among major currencies [20][21][24][25].