五矿期货农产品早报-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean and protein supply is generally in surplus, and the soybean meal market presents a situation of mixed long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [2][4]. - The draft of the US biodiesel policy supports the central level of the oil market, but the upward space is restricted by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries. The oil market is expected to fluctuate [4][10]. - The sugar price may continue to decline due to weak real - world demand, a chaotic monthly spread structure, and high profit margins for out - of - quota imports [13]. - In the short term, the cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the outcome of Sino - US negotiations [16]. - For eggs, the mid - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to go short, while in the short term, it is advisable to reduce short positions at low prices or remain on the sidelines [19]. - For pork, it is recommended to go short at high prices for contracts in the second half of the year, and consider short - term long positions at low prices for near - term contracts before delivery [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean/Meal 3.1.1 Market Situation - US soybeans rose first and then fell on Thursday, and the market was closed on Friday. The good weather and global bumper harvest put pressure on US soybeans, but the valuation was slightly low, maintaining a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose about 10 yuan on Thursday, with the East China price at 2830 yuan/ton. The oil mill's开机率 remained high, and the soybean meal sales were average, with far - month sales increasing. The inventory of domestic port soybeans and oil mill soybean meal continued to accumulate [2]. - The cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2850 - 3020 yuan/ton. The current oil mill's crushing volume is at a record high in the same period, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has declined, the inventory accumulation rhythm has accelerated, and the domestic soybean meal valuation has been suppressed [4]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - In the soybean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. 3.2 Oil 3.2.1 Market Situation - On Thursday, the domestic oil market fluctuated. The US Senate's version 45Z bill stipulates that tax credits are only applicable to North American raw materials, which is beneficial to US soybean oil and drives the oil market. The EPA policy is favorable, but the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has recovered significantly year - on - year, and there are still negative factors in the oil market. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [9]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategy - The oil market is expected to fluctuate. Although the draft of the US biodiesel policy supports the central level of the oil market, the upward space is restricted [10]. 3.3 Sugar 3.3.1 Market Situation - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the September contract was 5767 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed different trends. As of the end of June 2024/25, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi increased year - on - year, the sales rate increased, and the industrial inventory decreased year - on - year [12]. 3.3.2 Trading Strategy - The sugar price may continue to decline due to weak real - world demand, a chaotic monthly spread structure, and high profit margins for out - of - quota imports [13]. 3.4 Cotton 3.4.1 Market Situation - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the September contract was 13785 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The US 2025 cotton planting area is expected to be higher than market expectations, and the cotton good - quality rate has increased [15]. 3.4.2 Trading Strategy - In the short term, the cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the outcome of Sino - US negotiations [16]. 3.5 Eggs 3.5.1 Market Situation - The national egg price was generally stable. The supply was relatively sufficient, the downstream demand was diverse, and the egg price in the sales area was generally slow. It is expected that the egg price will be stable in most areas and may fluctuate slightly in some areas [18]. 3.5.2 Trading Strategy - The mid - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to go short, while in the short term, it is advisable to reduce short positions at low prices or remain on the sidelines [19]. 3.6 Pork 3.6.1 Market Situation - The domestic pork price mainly rose on the previous day, with some areas slightly falling. The purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream decreased, and it is expected that the supply from farmers will increase and the downstream will have more room to lower prices. The pork price may fall in the north and remain stable in the south [21]. 3.6.2 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to go short at high prices for contracts in the second half of the year, and consider short - term long positions at low prices for near - term contracts before delivery [22]. 3.7 Important Information - Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased in June, while the production showed a mixed trend, and the full - month production decreased by 0.65% month - on - month. Canada's rapeseed export volume increased week - on - week, and the cumulative export volume from August 1, 2024, to June 29, 2025, increased by 50.91% year - on - year [5]. - It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June 2025 will decrease by 0.24% month - on - month, production will decrease by 4.04% month - on - month, and exports will increase by 4.16% month - on - month [6].