五矿期货贵金属日报-20250704

Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai gold (Au) dropped 0.40% to 775.68 yuan/gram, while Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.67% to 8926.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.09% to 3340.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver dropped 0.19% to 37.02 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.3%, and the US dollar index was at 97.02 [2]. - Au(T+D) closed at 775.81 yuan/gram, up 0.71% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8929.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.20%. London gold was at 3332.15 dollars/ounce, down 0.11%, and London silver was at 36.88 dollars/ounce, up 1.58%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.66 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to 14868.74 tons [3]. - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.3500%, and TIPS increased to 2.0200%. The US dollar index rose 0.35% to 97.1185, and the offshore RMB fell 0.49% to 7.2545. Major stock indices, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, all rose, while the VIX index fell 1.56% [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Policy Expectations - The "Big and Beautiful Bill" passed the House of Representatives, and the US's loose fiscal policy is about to be implemented, which requires a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Despite the better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, silver prices remained resilient [2]. - The US added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, higher than the expected 110,000 and the revised previous value of 140,000. The non-farm government employment sub - item contributed 73,000 jobs, and the education and health services sector added 51,000 jobs. The market reduced its expectations for the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts [2]. - The implementation of the US's loose fiscal policy will increase the pressure on US Treasury bond issuance, and the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate unchanged at the July meeting with a more dovish stance and cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Against the background of the expected loosening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, attention should be paid to the long - term opportunities for silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and that for Shanghai silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [2]. Group 4: Data Summary - For gold on July 3, 2025, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 3336.00 dollars/ounce, down 0.97%; trading volume increased by 16.99% to 151,500 lots; and open interest decreased by 1.42% to 435,000 lots. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) was 781.28 yuan/gram, up 0.68%; trading volume decreased by 11.96% to 267,500 lots; and open interest increased by 0.82% to 413,800 lots [6]. - For silver on July 3, 2025, COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) was 37.04 dollars/ounce, up 0.68%; open interest decreased by 5.53% to 174,600 lots; and inventory decreased by 0.18% to 15,529 tons. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 8944.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.25%; trading volume increased by 47.09% to 923,300 lots; and open interest increased by 10.21% to 927,300 lots [6]. Group 5: Price Structure and Spread - COMEX gold and silver, London gold and silver, and Shanghai gold and silver all have corresponding near - far month price structures and spreads. For example, on July 3, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was 7.46 yuan/gram, and for silver was 446.74 yuan/kilogram [49].