格林大华期货早盘提示-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend. The US labor market is strong, with better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. China's economic indicators such as the PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition boosts listed company performance. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's military expansion promotes the recovery of European manufacturing. China may take the lead in the "robot race" [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Important Information - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, and all Vietnamese goods exported to the US will face at least a 20% tariff and "fully open the market" to the US [1] - In June, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, and the non - farm payrolls in April and May were revised up by a total of 16,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% [1] - BlackRock believes that due to the strong profit growth driven by AI, US stocks are still the best investment choice and are expected to outperform European stocks again. In the context of inflation concerns and increasing debt burdens, US Treasuries will perform worse than US stocks [1] - The US Department of Commerce has revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China [1] - The London copper price has climbed close to this year's highest level, and the overnight spread of copper prices jumped to a premium of nearly $100 per ton last week, the largest gap since 2021. Analysts warn of a possible "short squeeze" [1] - The European Commission has proposed a revision to the European Climate Law, aiming to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels by 2040 [1] - In May, the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the US dropped by about 20% year - on - year, while the export volume only decreased by 3.9%, indicating that Japan maintained shipments and market share through significant price cuts but suffered a heavy blow to profits [1] - Citi believes that whether stablecoins substantially drive the demand for US Treasuries depends on the source of funds. If newly issued stablecoins come from the transfer of existing bank deposits or money market funds, there will be no net new demand for US Treasuries [1] Global Economic Logic - The strong US non - farm payroll data in June shows a robust labor market. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the rectification of involution - style competition boosts corporate performance. The European Central Bank's 8 interest - rate cuts and Germany's 30% military expansion drive the recovery of European manufacturing. China may lead in the "robot race" [1]