国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250704

Report Overview - Date: July 4, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Research Institution: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upside elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: The inventory accumulation pattern continues, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][10] - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and the volatility of the futures market is amplifying [2][14] - Polysilicon: Market news is fermenting, and the volatility of the futures market is intensifying [2][15] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790 yuan, up 570 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710 yuan, up 40 yuan from T - 1 [4] - Trading Volume: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 78,989 lots, up 9,783 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 85,411 lots, down 21,358 lots from T - 1 [4] - Spot Prices: The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,850 yuan, up 650 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 909 yuan, down 2 yuan from T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has entered the trial production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][7] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue to shut down for maintenance from June to July, affecting 11 - 13 tons of 300 - series production [7] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban clause [7] - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [8] Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [9] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 64,300 yuan, up 320 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the 2509 contract was 64,080 yuan, up 120 yuan from T - 1 [11] - Trading Volume: The trading volume of the 2507 contract was 764 lots, up 599 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the 2509 contract was 420,967 lots, down 119,468 lots from T - 1 [11] - Spot Prices: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,100 yuan, up 450 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan, up 450 yuan from T - 1 [11] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 61,638 yuan/ton, up 306 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12] - This week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,123 tons, a decrease of 644 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 138,347 tons, an increase of 1,510 tons from last week [12] - A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan for two months, while a plant in Sichuan is operating normally [13] Trend Intensity - Lithium Carbonate: - 1 [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,010 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 35,050 yuan/ton, up 3,335 yuan from T - 1 [15] - Trading Volume: The trading volume of the Si2509 contract was 1,196,542 lots, down 447,106 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the PS2508 contract was 482,063 lots, up 70,477 lots from T - 1 [15] - Spot Prices: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 8,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from T - 1; the price of polysilicon - N - type re - feeding material was 36,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [15] Macro and Industry News - Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary, Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., completed a 4.916 - billion - yuan strategic capital increase and introduced 11 strategic investors [15][17] Trend Intensity - Industrial Silicon: 0; Polysilicon: 0 [17]