对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，逢低正套，PTA：多PX空PTAneg，单边震荡市

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Supply and demand are in tight balance, recommend going long on the near - month contract and short on the far - month contract [1] - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA [1] - MEG: Sideways market for single - sided trading [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Only the Fuhua plant reduced its load this week. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans for plants such as Zhejiang Petrochemical. PTA plant production cuts impact PX demand. Near - month PX supply and demand remain tight, and floating prices are high. Focus on positions for compressing far - month PXN [6] - PTA: Yisheng Hainan unexpectedly reduced its load this week, and the operating rate dropped to 77.7%. Polyester operating rate decreased to 90.6%, and overall PTA supply and demand are balanced. The basis is expected to be slightly strong, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure from late July to August, and the overall trend is expected to be weak. Short the processing fee on rallies [6] - MEG: It is in a sideways market. This week, the port arrival volume increased significantly, and port inventory increased by 60,000 tons month - on - month, which is negative for the month - spread. However, there have been many changes in Saudi Arabian plants, and the Yanbu plant's 1.1 million - ton ethylene glycol production was reduced by 70% due to an accident. Pay attention to the possible decline in Saudi Arabian imports in August [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: Naphtha prices remained strong at the end of the session. On the 3rd, PX prices fell. Three August Asian spot transactions were at $861, $859, and $858 respectively, and two September Asian spot transactions were both at $844. The PX valuation on the 3rd was $849/ton, a $5 decrease from the 2nd [3] - PTA: In the Chinese mainland, Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 - million - ton plant increased its load, Hengli's 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted, Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plant shut down, and Yisheng Hainan and Yisheng Dalian's PTA plants reduced their loads. By Thursday, the PTA operating rate dropped to 77.7%. According to another calculation method, the current PTA operating rate is around 83.6% [3] - MEG: As of July 3rd, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 66.51% (a 0.76% month - on - month decrease), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 69.34% (a 2.15% month - on - month decrease) [3] - Polyester: Recently, some plants have arranged maintenance one after another, but the loads of other plants have also been adjusted locally. Overall, the polyester load is slightly declining in a volatile manner. As of Thursday, the preliminary calculation of the polyester load in the Chinese mainland is around 90.6%. The operating load of large - scale polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has basically remained stable, and as of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is around 73%. On the 3rd, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate estimated at 40% - 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 42% by 3:00 pm [5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 [6] - PTA trend intensity: 1 [6] - MEG trend intensity: 1 [6] Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6740 | 4746 | 4288 | 6564 | 506.3 | | Change | 6790 | - 48 | - 11 | - 58 | 8.1 | | Change Rate | - 0.74% | - 1.00% | - 0.26% | - 0.88% | 1.63% | | Month - spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF8 - 9 | SC8 - 9 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 130 | 84 | - 36 | 120 | 5.7 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 144 | 114 | - 33 | 120 | 5.5 | | Change | - 14 | - 30 | - 3 | 0 | 0.2 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 849.67 | 4872 | 4361 | 577.38 | 71.14 | | Previous Day's Price | 854 | 4920 | 4360 | 572.25 | 69.85 | | Change | - 4.33 | - 48 | 1 | 5.12 | 1.29 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Short - fiber Processing Fee | Bottle - chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 296.92 | 338.19 | 152.72 | - 559.28 | - 7.42 | | Previous Day's Price | 282.75 | 420.68 | 195.94 | - 574.07 | - 7.42 | | Change | 14.17 | - 82.49 | - 43.22 | 14.78 | 0 | [2]