光大期货有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日）-20250704

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight LME copper weakened with a 0.58% drop to $9,951.5/ton, SHFE copper main contract fell 0.27% to 80,540 yuan/ton, and spot imports remained in a loss. The better - than - expected US employment data may reduce the possibility of the Fed's early rate cut in July. LME, Comex, and domestic copper inventories all increased. In the off - season, terminal procurement enthusiasm declined. With potential fundamental changes, copper price lacks industrial support for upward movement, but due to Sino - US interaction and domestic anti - involution policy expectations, short - selling enthusiasm is limited, and the copper price may oscillate slightly stronger with limited upside [1]. Aluminum - Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. Alumina faces ore disturbances in the far - month and new production pressure, mainly oscillating in a range. There is a game between the weakening marginal demand of electrolytic aluminum and the effects of low ingot casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeeze. For scrap aluminum, there is still cost support, and for aluminum alloy, continuously focus on the opportunity of rolling long the AD - AL price difference [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 0.86% to $15,355/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.1% to 122,540 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Some nickel ore premiums in the Philippines declined, and the domestic stainless - steel cost support shifted down. There was a certain production cut in the supply side. The short - term price has a certain repair, but the upside is limited, and in the medium - term, the demand restricts the fundamentals, which may still be bearish [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Research Views - Copper: Analyzed price changes, macro data, inventory changes, and demand conditions, concluding that the copper price may oscillate slightly stronger with limited upside [1]. - Aluminum: Discussed price trends, raw material prices, processing fees, and the market situation of different aluminum products, pointing out the game factors and investment opportunities [1][2]. - Nickel: Presented price movements, inventory changes, and the situation of related industries such as nickel ore and stainless steel, and gave short - and medium - term price outlooks [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Showed price changes of different copper products, inventory changes in multiple places, and other indicators such as premiums and import - export profits and losses [4]. - Lead: Included price changes of lead products, lead - concentrate prices, processing fees, inventory changes, and premiums [4]. - Aluminum: Displayed price changes of aluminum products, raw - material prices, inventory changes, and premiums [5]. - Nickel: Presented price changes of nickel products, nickel - ore prices, inventory changes, and premiums [5]. - Zinc: Showed price changes, TC, inventory changes, and premiums of zinc products [6]. - Tin: Included price changes, inventory changes, and premiums of tin products [6]. Chart Analysis - Spot Premiums: Provided charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads: Showed charts of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21][22]. - LME Inventory: Presented charts of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - SHFE Inventory: Displayed charts of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - Social Inventory: Included charts of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - Smelting Profits: Showed charts of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements introduced [50][51][52].