Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] Core View - The macro environment and monetary policy have no significant changes, and the treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - On Thursday, the opening of most main contracts of treasury bond futures rose slightly, with an overall trend of bottom - hunting and recovery, closing with long lower shadows. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.02%, the 10 - year T2509 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.01% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 5.72 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 50.93 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 45.21 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.32% (1.36% on the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.51% on the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year yield fell 0.42 BP to 1.49%, the 10 - year yield rose 0.11 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year yield rose 0.35 BP to 1.85% [1] - The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) in June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May. The expansion speed of China's service industry slowed down in June due to factors such as the fading effect of the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays [1] - The US unemployment rate in June was reported at 4.1% (market forecast: 4.3%, previous value: 4.2%). The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 147,000 in June (forecast: an increase of 110,000, previous value: an increase of 139,000). The stronger - than - expected non - farm payroll report prompted traders to withdraw their bets on a Fed rate cut this month [1] Market Logic - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st pointed out that the construction of a unified national market should be advanced in depth, and the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises should be regulated in accordance with laws and regulations to promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The policy is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but the effect may take a long time to appear [1] - The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in the second quarter of 2025 suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation, guiding financial institutions to increase the intensity of currency and credit investment, flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation, and intensifying the implementation of incremental policies. It also called for observing and evaluating the bond market from a macro - prudential perspective and paying attention to changes in long - term yields [1] - The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous value: 49.5%). After the cross - half - year period, the capital interest rate has been declining continuously, which is beneficial to bond bulls [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]
格林大华期货国债早盘提示-20250704
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-07-04 03:49