格林大华期货股指早盘提示-20250704

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market due to measures such as anti - involution, capital market reforms, and the improvement of the A - share market's attractiveness [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Thursday, the major indexes of the two markets fluctuated slightly upward. The CSI 1000 index closed at 6342 points, up 33 points or 0.53%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5922 points, up 29 points or 0.50%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2724 points, up 2 points or 0.07%; the CSI 300 index closed at 3968 points, up 24 points or 0.62%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.30 trillion yuan, showing a slight contraction. The top - rising ETFs were 5GETF, Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF Cathay, etc., while the top - falling ones were Energy ETF, Oil and Gas Resources ETF, etc. The top - rising sector indexes were consumer electronics, components, etc., and the top - falling ones were marine economy, coal mining, etc. The margin funds of CSI 1000, CSI 500, and CSI 300 index futures had net inflows of 100 million, 50 million, and 20 million yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The CSRC meeting proposed to optimize capital market mechanisms and promote a new round of comprehensive in - depth capital market reforms. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission initiated anti - involution and capacity - reduction actions in industries such as photovoltaic, steel, and cement. In June 2025, the number of new A - share accounts reached 1.65 million, with a cumulative total of 12.6 million in the first half of the year. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planned to regulate the photovoltaic industry's low - price competition. The US Department of Commerce revoked the requirement for three major chip design software suppliers to apply for a license for their business in China. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. In May, the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the US dropped by about 20% year - on - year. There were different views on the impact of stablecoins on US Treasury bond demand. Some institutions believed that US stocks were the best investment choice, and the US employment data was mixed [1][2]. Market Logic - The anti - involution actions boosted listed companies' performance, and the capital market played a multi - level role in promoting consumption through a closed - loop policy design [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to trend upward. Factors include capital market reforms, anti - involution and capacity - reduction actions, the recovery of new account openings in the A - share market, the revocation of restrictions on chip design software suppliers' business in China, the potential inflow of international funds into the A - share market, and the governance of low - price competition in enterprises [2]. Trading Strategy - For stock index futures, go long on the four major stock index futures contracts. For stock index options, buy out - of - the - money long - term call options [2].