格林大华期货瓶片早盘提示-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for bottle chips) is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Report's Core View - The price of bottle chips is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term due to large spot inventory pressure and the downstream entering the off - season, despite factors like the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, a rebound in crude oil prices, a significant decline in bottle chip production this week, strong expectations for the terminal consumption peak season with rising temperatures, high export volume in May, and expected increases in the开工 rate of downstream industries [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main contract PR2509 of bottle chips dropped by 8 yuan to 5908 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2509 was 42,300 lots, a decrease of 618 lots. In the spot market, the price of water - grade bottle chips in the East China market fell by 5 yuan to 6000 yuan/ton, and in the South China market, it dropped by 10 yuan to 6050 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: Domestic polyester bottle chip production was 354,200 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 77.5%, a decrease of 2.4% from last week. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5725 yuan, a decrease of 3.1%. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 70.9 yuan/ton [1] - Demand: In May 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 619,000 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 2.6955 million tons [1] - OPEC decision: Eight OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting from June this year [1] - Oil price: Uncertainty in US tariff policies and the likelihood of OPEC+ continuing to increase production in August led to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 08 contract was at 67.00, down 0.45 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 09 contract was at 68.80, down 0.31 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. The main contract 2508 of China's INE crude oil futures rose 5.2 to 503.7 yuan/barrel and 3.3 to 507 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - Geopolitical factors led to a rebound in crude oil prices. This week, bottle chip production decreased significantly. With rising temperatures, there are strong expectations for the terminal consumption peak season, and the downstream industries'开工 rate is expected to increase. However, large spot inventory pressure and the downstream entering the off - season lead to a short - term weakly oscillating price of bottle chips [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]