Group 1: Research Views - On July 3, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2508 closed at 35,050 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.14%. The open interest decreased by 18,097 lots to 76,908 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material rose to 36,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon material also rose to 36,000 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract remained stable at 950 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The main contract 2509 closed at 8,010 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.93%. The open interest decreased by 5,521 lots to 381,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 8,738 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon rose to 8,150 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 165 yuan/ton [2]. - The latest industry meeting put forward more requirements to prevent "involutionary" vicious competition in the industry, and the implementation of polysilicon production cuts is expected to speed up. Previously, there were news of large-scale production cuts at industrial silicon plants in Xinjiang. Industrial silicon drove polysilicon to rebound upwards. Due to the previous oversold situation, the recovery power of polysilicon was stronger than that of industrial silicon. Recently, there have been frequent news in the polysilicon industry, and the trading logic has gradually shifted to polysilicon leading the rise of industrial silicon [2]. - Currently, the high inventory pressure has not been resolved, and there has been no actual improvement in the fundamentals of the two silicons. The news has increased the volatility of the market. It is recommended that investors be cautious and continuously pay attention to the price ratio of the two silicons, track inventory inflection points, and policy trends [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,035 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,050 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of silicon increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, except for some 421 silicon that remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 100 yuan to 165 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 62 to 51,854, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 19,735 tons to 263,720 tons. The inventories at Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and Kunming Port decreased by 3,000 tons, 11,000 tons, and 2,000 tons respectively. The industrial silicon factory inventory decreased by 54,860 tons to 211,640 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 70,860 tons to 367,640 tons [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract remained unchanged at 35,050 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 660 yuan/ton to 35,660 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 36,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium remained at 950 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory was 78,000 tons. The polysilicon factory inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 269,800 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 10,800 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. Downstream Products - The prices of silicon wafers (single crystal M10/G12) and battery cells (single crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and fine coal prices [5][7][12] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][19][21] 3.3 Inventory - Charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [24][25][27] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost and profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [30][32][37] Group 4: Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity research experience and has won multiple awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [39][40]
工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日）-20250704
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-04 03:54