高盛：全球利率-上涨空间有限

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modestly richer range for US yields, with expectations for 2-year and 10-year yields to finish the year at 3.45% and 4.20% respectively, down from previous forecasts of 3.85% and 4.50% [2][5]. Core Views - The revised Fed baseline suggests earlier cuts and a lower terminal rate, leading to a lower range for US yields across the curve. The expectation for 10-year US yields is now 4.20% at the end of 2025, compared to 4.50% previously [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the improved macro outlook will compress risk premia throughout the Gilt curve, with a forecast of 10-year Gilts at 4.25% by year-end [19]. - European duration is expected to trade weaker over time, with a 10-year Bund yield forecast of 2.8% for end-2025, driven by fiscal support from Germany [19][11]. Summary by Sections US and Canada - The firmer than expected June jobs report has led to a modestly richer range for US yields, with the revised forecasts reflecting a dovish stance compared to market pricing [2][5]. - The risks associated with diminished central bank independence and fiscal pressures are limiting factors for long-end richening [2]. Europe - The report maintains Bund yield forecasts at 2.8% for end-2025, with expectations that fiscal support will push yields higher as growth expectations improve [11][19]. - The ECB's strategy assessment indicates a need for forceful policy action to address inflation volatility, with limited guidance on near-term policy [11]. UK - The report notes ongoing fiscal fragilities in the UK, but front-end longs are expected to remain relatively well protected despite recent volatility in the Gilt market [16][19]. - The expectation is for 10-year Gilts to rally towards 4.25% by year-end, supported by bullish spillovers from the US [19]. Japan - The report suggests that the BOJ normalization cycle will be prolonged, with a medium-term neutral rate of 1.25-1.5%, impacting yields across the curve [19]. General Market Dynamics - The report highlights that a benign path to lower short-term rates can improve the economic appeal of US Treasuries, despite downward revisions to US yields [1][4]. - The potential for deeper cuts to support lower yields is acknowledged, with a steeper curve expected in spot terms [4][7].