高盛：全球经济评论-出人意料的小幅不确定性拖累

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses the impact of trade policy uncertainty on economic activity, suggesting a smaller-than-feared drag on growth [5][34]. Core Insights - Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) rose significantly after President Trump's election but has recently decreased, with little evidence of a substantial negative impact on global economic activity [3][6]. - Investment, manufacturing employment, and consumer spending have remained stable, indicating that the anticipated slowdown due to TPU has not materialized as expected [12][34]. - The report highlights that trade-exposed investment constitutes a small portion of GDP, which may explain the limited observable effects of TPU on overall economic performance [21][22]. Summary by Sections Trade Policy Uncertainty - Trade policy uncertainty increased after the election but has since pulled back, with indices remaining elevated yet showing no significant drag on growth [2][4]. - Historical data suggests that the impact of TPU peaks shortly after its increase, implying that any slowdown in growth should have already occurred [3][5]. Economic Activity - Despite initial fears, indicators of investment and overall activity have followed prior trends, with forecasts for growth in Q2 and the full year improving [12][34]. - The report notes that the frontloading of US imports may have masked some of the uncertainty's effects, but even after accounting for this, the drag from TPU appears limited [16][17]. Statistical Analysis - Statistical analyses indicate that uncertainty primarily affects growth through its interaction with financial conditions, with easing financial conditions since early 2025 potentially dampening the impact of uncertainty [26][27]. - The report presents regression results showing that while uncertainty has a small negative effect on activity, the combination of tighter financial conditions and increased uncertainty creates a significant drag on growth [27][29]. Future Expectations - The report anticipates that while tariffs may slow activity later in the year, this will be driven more by direct impacts rather than uncertainty surrounding trade policy [34].