Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-04 04:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the white goods and large kitchen appliances sectors, which are closely related to the real estate market [3][4]. Core Insights - The white goods and large kitchen appliances are essential categories in home decoration, showing a strong correlation with real estate. The demand for these products is expected to benefit from the easing of real estate policies, leading to valuation recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights that the demand for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is stabilizing, while the air conditioning sector still has growth potential due to its lower saturation level compared to other categories [3][4][5]. - The analysis indicates a shift in demand dynamics, with the contribution from second-hand housing increasing, while the influence of new housing on demand is gradually declining [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Correlation Discussion - The home appliance industry is significantly influenced by real estate, with major categories like air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines being essential for daily life [14]. - The sales volume of these appliances is closely linked to real estate data, reflecting their post-cycle attributes [14]. 2. Stock Price Review - The air conditioning sector's performance is a key driver for stock price increases in the white goods sector, benefiting from various factors including policies and weather conditions [3][4]. - The kitchen appliance sector shows high correlation with real estate performance, affecting stock price fluctuations [3][4]. 3. Real Estate Demand Breakdown - The report analyzes the impact of real estate on demand for major appliances, indicating that the contribution from new housing is decreasing while the second-hand housing market's influence is growing [5][6]. - The demand for refrigerators and washing machines has remained stable at around 20% driven by real estate, while air conditioning's contribution has significantly declined over the past decade [5][6]. 4. Globalization - The report discusses the increasing global market share of Chinese home appliance brands, highlighting their cost and technological advantages [4][5]. - The trend of acquiring overseas brands is accelerating, positioning Chinese companies for growth in international markets [4][5]. 5. Key Conclusions and Investment Analysis - The white goods and large kitchen appliances sectors are expected to benefit from the relaxation of real estate policies, leading to valuation recovery [4][5]. - The report recommends continued investment in companies like Haier, Midea, Gree, and Hisense in the white goods sector, and in Wanhe Electric, Robam, and Vatti in the kitchen appliance sector [4][5].