聚丙烯风险管理日报-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by macro - sentiment, polyolefins have been oscillating upward recently. Fundamentally, PP shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. From June to August, there are many new PP device commissioning plans, with an expected new production capacity of 2.2 million tons, increasing supply pressure. In July, PP device maintenance will decrease, bringing further supply increments. On the demand side, it is still the off - season for downstream production and sales, and enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand, lacking incremental demand drivers. Therefore, PP faces significant pressure under the current supply - demand pattern. The logic of the expanding L - P spread has certain support, and attention should be paid to the device commissioning progress and changes in Sino - US tariff policies [2] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.10% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 29.7% [1] 3.2 Polypropylene Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell the PP2509C7100 call option with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, enterprises can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6950 - 7000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell the PP2509P7000 put option with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1] 3.3 Core Contradictions - Affected by macro - sentiment, polyolefins oscillate upward. PP has a supply - increasing and demand - weak pattern. New device commissioning from June to August and reduced maintenance in July increase supply, while demand is in the off - season with only rigid - demand replenishment. The expanding L - P spread has support, and attention should be paid to device commissioning progress and tariff policy changes [2] 3.4 Bullish Factors - Polypropylene inventory remains at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively firm with little change in the basis [3] 3.5 Bearish Factors - Yulong Line 4 has entered the commissioning stage. Multiple devices will be commissioned from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. In July, PP device maintenance is expected to decrease, and devices will gradually resume operation. It is the downstream sales off - season, and overall domestic demand is weak due to poor profits this year [4] 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Report Table 3.6.1 Futures Price and Spread - The polypropylene main - contract basis decreased by 46 yuan/ton daily and 67 yuan/ton weekly. PP01 contract price remained unchanged, PP05 contract price increased by 22 yuan/ton weekly, and PP09 contract price decreased by 29 yuan/ton weekly. The PP1 - 5 monthly spread decreased by 22 yuan/ton weekly, the PP5 - 9 monthly spread increased by 84 yuan/ton weekly, and the PP9 - 1 monthly spread decreased by 62 yuan/ton weekly. The L - P spread decreased by 210 yuan/ton daily and 199 yuan/ton weekly [1][5][7] 3.6.2 Spot Price and Regional Spread - In the spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased. The East - North price difference decreased by 145 yuan/ton daily and 125 yuan/ton weekly, and the East - South price difference increased by 55 yuan/ton daily and 30 yuan/ton weekly [7] 3.6.3 Non - standard and Standard Product Spread - The spreads between various non - standard products and the standard product (拉丝) changed. For example, the spread between homopolymer injection molding and 拉丝 decreased by 655 yuan/ton daily and 600 yuan/ton weekly [7] 3.6.4 Upstream Price and Processing Profit - Brent crude oil price increased by 2.31 dollars/barrel weekly. The US propane price, Northwest coal price, and East China methanol price decreased. The oil - to - PP profit increased by 488.2476 yuan/ton weekly, the coal - to - PP profit decreased by 659.5 yuan/ton daily and 657.25 yuan/ton weekly, the externally - purchased methanol - to - PP profit decreased by 190 yuan/ton daily and 270 yuan/ton weekly, the PDH - to - PP profit decreased by 196.5004 yuan/ton weekly, and the externally - purchased propylene - to - PP profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton weekly [7]