海外市场点评：6月非农缘何大超预期？

Employment Data Insights - June non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding the expectation of 106,000, showcasing strong resilience in the job market[1] - The total revisions for April and May added 16,000 jobs, indicating a significant divergence between ADP and non-farm data[1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, breaking the market expectation of 4.3%[2] Government and Private Sector Employment - State and local government hiring surged, contributing 48,000 jobs in June, which was a primary driver of the non-farm payroll increase[2] - Private sector employment saw a surprising decline of 63,000 jobs, falling to 74,000, indicating potential demand slowdown[5] Labor Market Dynamics - Labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, slightly below market expectations, primarily due to reduced labor supply from immigration policies[2] - Average hourly earnings rose by only 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, suggesting moderated wage growth[5] Economic Risks and Outlook - Persistent high unemployment claims and a rise in initial jobless claims indicate increasing employment difficulties[5] - The manufacturing sector continues to face challenges due to tariff impacts, with job growth remaining stagnant[5]