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申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250704
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-07-04 05:21

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gold and silver prices declined due to better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in June, which cooled the expectation of an early Fed rate cut. The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to increase the fiscal deficit, and the US dollar is weak. The Fed is maintaining a wait - and - see stance, with a neutral expectation of a rate cut starting in September. Gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices. Caution is needed regarding the uncertainty of Trump's policies as the July tariff suspension deadline approaches [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For futures contracts, the prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 decreased, with respective changes of - 5.92, - 5.80, - 28.00, - 27.00 and percentage changes of - 0.76%, - 0.74%, - 0.31%, - 0.30%. For example,沪金2508 is now at 773.00 compared to the previous close of 778.92 [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts vary. For instance, the open interest of沪金2508 is 98320 and its trading volume is 53873 [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, London Gold (in USD/oz), Shanghai Silver T + D, and London Silver (in USD/oz) have different changes. For example, the price of Shanghai Gold T + D increased by 5.48 with a change rate of 0.71%, while London Gold decreased by 6.09 with a change rate of - 0.79% [2]. Inventory - Inventory Changes: The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. The上期所白银库存 increased by 2133.00 kg, while COMEX gold inventory decreased by 262,617.32 and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 902370 [2]. Related Derivatives - ETF and Speculator Positions: The positions of spdr gold ETF, SLV silver ETF, and CFTC speculators in gold and silver have changed. For example, the spdr gold ETF position increased by 1.00 ton, and the CFTC speculator net position in gold decreased by 1451 [2]. Macroeconomic Information - Policy and Data: The US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will increase the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The US will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnam, not in addition to the existing 10%. US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the initial jobless claims reached a six - week low. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September dropped to about 80%. The US May factory orders increased by 8.2% month - on - month [5].