国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by positive macro - sentiment, they are expected to have a strong - biased and volatile trend [2][5][6]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon: They are predicted to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][9]. - Coke and Coking Coal: With the fermentation of anti - cut - throat competition signals, they are likely to be volatile and trend upwards [2][12]. - Steam Coal: As daily consumption recovers, its price will stabilize with fluctuations [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For the RB2510 rebar futures, the closing price was 3,076 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.45%); for the HC2510 hot - rolled coil futures, the closing price was 3,208 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (1.45%). In terms of spot prices, there were minor changes in different regions [6]. - Macro and Industry News: On July 3, steel production data showed that rebar production increased by 3.24 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.9 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 4.17 tons. Total rebar inventory decreased by 3.79 tons, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.77 tons. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 4.96 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.29 tons. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in June showed an overall upward trend [7][8]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [8]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of silicon ferrosilicon 2508 and 2509 contracts were 5398 yuan/ton and 5390 yuan/ton respectively, down 48 yuan/ton and 46 yuan/ton; for manganese ferrosilicon 2508 and 2509 contracts, the closing prices were 5700 yuan/ton and 5712 yuan/ton respectively, down 12 yuan/ton and 14 yuan/ton. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [9]. - Macro and Industry News: On July 3, the price ranges of different grades of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in various regions were reported. Qinghai Fuhai reduced the production of some silicon ferrosilicon furnaces, with a daily output reduction of 110 tons [10]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the JM2509 coking coal futures was 814.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (-1.27%); for the J2509 coke futures, the closing price was 1388.5 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan/ton (-1.10%). Spot prices remained mostly stable [12]. - Price and Position Information: Northern port coking coal prices and the July 3 Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index were reported. On July 3, in the top 20 member positions of the DCE, the long positions of the JM2509 coking coal contract increased by 13,139 lots, and the short positions increased by 6906 lots; for the J2509 coke contract, the long positions decreased by 359 lots, and the short positions increased by 75 lots [12][13][14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Steam Coal - Previous Day's Domestic Market: The ZC2507 steam coal futures had no trading on the previous day. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [17]. - Fundamental Information: Southern port foreign - trade steam coal prices and domestic steam coal origin prices were reported. On July 3, in the top 20 member positions of the ZCE, the long and short positions of the ZC2507 steam coal contract did not change [18]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for steam coal is 0, indicating a neutral trend [19].