新能源及有色金属日报：社会库存持续小幅累库-20250704

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The market is currently facing supply pressure, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% in supply in June and an expected high output of 590,000 tons in July. Social inventories are increasing slightly, and there may be a negative feedback from invisible inventories. After the absolute price increase, the spot market trading has become more sluggish, and the spot premium has quickly declined. After the reaction of macro - positive factors, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back. Attention should be paid to changes in social inventories [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.99/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,430 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 5 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 120 yuan/ton to 22,370 yuan/ton, and its premium fell by 15 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 110 yuan/ton to 22,330 yuan/ton, and its premium fell by 25 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures: On July 3, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,320 yuan/ton and closed at 22,325 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 132,674 lots, an increase of 4,654 lots, and the position was 127,934 lots, a decrease of 1,829 lots. The highest price was 22,400 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: As of July 3, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 82,400 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 112,675 tons, a decrease of 750 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - Spot Market: The strong performance of the futures market has dampened the downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot premium has mainly declined. The supply pressure remains high, and the negative feedback from invisible inventories may occur. The increase in smelting profit has further stimulated the smelting enthusiasm, and the supply pressure persists. After the absolute price increase, the spot market trading has become more sluggish, and the spot premium has quickly declined [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5]. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5].