PVC社会库存延续累库

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro - sentiment eases, PVC's trend returns to fundamentals. Its supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory is expected to continue accumulating. For caustic soda, the current chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers with limited upward momentum [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,914 yuan/ton (-16); the East China basis is -134 yuan/ton (+36); the South China basis is -64 yuan/ton (+16) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (+20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -504 yuan/ton (-10); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -693 yuan/ton (-53); the PVC export profit is -5.2 dollars/ton (-4.8) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 39.5 tons (-0.6); the social PVC inventory is 36.2 tons (+0.7); the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.73% (+0.30%); the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 65.46% (-1.92%); the overall PVC operation rate is 76.50% (-0.31%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 62.9 tons (-1.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,380 yuan/ton (-11); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 26 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 770 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,415 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 512.0 yuan/ton (-40.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 80.03 yuan/ton (+0.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 38.42 tons (-0.62); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.30 tons (-0.28); the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.50% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 80.67% (-0.07%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.25% (-0.13%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 75.17% (-3.40%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Previous maintenance continues, and the overall PVC operation rate declines slightly. Many enterprises have planned maintenance, but the chlor - alkali profit prevents significant production cuts. New production capacities such as Bohua, Yaowang, and Wanhua are expected to be put into operation, offsetting some of the maintenance losses. The supply side is under pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products continues to decline, and domestic demand remains weak. Export orders are stable, and exports continue to increase. India's BIS standard policy is postponed for 6 months, supporting the short - term export market, but the anti - dumping policy is still uncertain [3] - Cost side: The calcium carbide market is weak due to more downstream maintenance, and the cost support for calcium carbide - based PVC is weak. The lifting of the US ban on ethane exports to China may reduce the cost of ethylene - based PVC later, but the impact is lagged [3] - Inventory: Due to sufficient supply and poor downstream demand, the social PVC inventory continues to accumulate [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The price of liquid chlorine drops significantly, increasing the marginal cost of caustic soda. There are concerns about potential passive production cuts. The operation rate of caustic soda decreases due to more maintenance, but the production cut intention is low. After maintenance, the operation rate is expected to rise, and new production capacities are planned to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation of the main downstream alumina is stable, with new production capacities expected in Shandong. The delivery volume of a Shandong alumina plant decreases, and the stocking enthusiasm declines. Non - aluminum downstream demand is weak [3] - Inventory and profit: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers [3] Strategy - PVC: Maintain a neutral stance. After the macro - sentiment eases, pay attention to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: Maintain a neutral stance. With limited upward momentum, consider shorting on rallies [4]