原油日报：美国对华乙烷出口恢复-20250704

Report Summary 1. Market News and Key Data - Crude Oil Futures Prices: The August - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 45 cents to $67.00 a barrel, a 0.67% decline; the September - delivery Brent crude futures in London dropped 31 cents to $68.80 a barrel, a 0.45% decline. The SC crude oil main contract rose 0.66% to 507 yuan per barrel [1]. - US - Vietnam Trade Agreement: Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, where the Vietnamese market will be fully open to the US. Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff to the US, and a 40% tariff on any trans - shipped goods [1]. - US Employment Data: In June, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 (seasonally adjusted), higher than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year. Government employment increased by 73,000, healthcare by 39,000, and social assistance by 19,000. However, the oil and gas extraction industry lost about 500 jobs compared to the previous month and about 900 compared to the same period last year [1]. - US Ethane Exports to China: The US government revoked a restrictive licensing requirement on July 2, clearing the way for the resumption of ethane exports to China. Eight ships have sailed to China since the restriction was lifted [1]. - OPEC+ Production Increase: OPEC+ is discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day, to be further discussed in an online meeting this weekend. Saudi Arabia and its partners have previously approved the same - scale increases for May, June, and July [1]. - Trump's Energy Bill: Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ends long - term support for solar and wind energy and creates a favorable environment for oil, gas, and coal production. It opens federal lands and waters for oil and gas drilling, reduces royalties for producers, and phases out tax credits for wind and solar energy projects after 2027 [1]. 2. Investment Logic - With the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, China resumes rare - earth exports to the US, and the US cancels restrictions on ethane exports to China, reducing trade uncertainties and boosting market risk appetite. Also, an increase in the fuel - oil diluted - asphalt consumption - tax deduction ratio for some Shandong refineries is expected to lower refinery costs, boost the Shandong local refinery operating rate, and be positive for oil prices [2]. 3. Strategy - Oil prices are expected to trade in a short - term range and be a medium - term short - side allocation [3].