中辉有色观点-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. Despite a reduced probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, long - term factors such as debt ceiling expansion, monetary easing, and global order reshaping support a long - term bullish view [1][2]. - Silver is predicted to have a strong - level range - bound movement. It is influenced by basic metals and gold price sentiment, with a relatively strong support around 8700 [1]. - Copper is recommended to hold long positions partially, with a long - term bullish outlook. However, short - term high - level risks should be watched out for [1][4][5]. - Zinc is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation. In the long run, supply is increasing while demand is weakening, so short - selling opportunities on rallies should be grasped [1][7][8]. - Lead is likely to rebound in the short term due to supply and demand factors [1]. - Tin is expected to rebound and then decline because of supply disruptions and the entry of the consumption off - season [1]. - Aluminum is predicted to face pressure on its short - term rebound. Although there is short - term support from inventory reduction, the off - season and inventory build - up expectations may limit the upside [1][10][11]. - Nickel is expected to rebound in the short term, but it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies, paying attention to inventory changes [1][12][13]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to have a short - term high - level range - bound movement, with a long - term supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to the 65,000 resistance level [1][14][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Gold - Market Review: U.S. non - farm payrolls were unexpectedly positive, and non - manufacturing PMI improved, leading to a reduced probability of interest rate cuts and a price adjustment for gold [2]. - Industry Logic: The increase in non - farm payrolls reduced the probability of interest rate cuts. The "Great Beauty Act" is about to be passed. Long - term factors such as global order reshaping and fiscal - monetary double - easing support a long - term bullish view for gold [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Although there is short - term adjustment, the U.S. dollar is in a medium - term weakening trend. Gold has strong support around 760, and a long - term bullish view remains. Consider long - term investment opportunities [3]. Silver - Market Review: Supported by U.S. large - scale fiscal easing, silver shows an upward sentiment and range - bound movement, with strong support around 8700 [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support level and trade within the range [3]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper is trading in a high - level range [4]. - Industry Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and copper concentrate processing TC has dropped. Some mines in Peru are facing transportation disruptions. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and LME copper inventory is slightly replenished. Although it is the consumption off - season, green copper demand in power and new - energy vehicles is strong [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold existing long positions partially and take profits on rallies. Be cautious of short - term high - level risks. In the long run, copper is bullish. Focus on the range of [79,000, 82,000] for Shanghai copper and [9,900, 11,000] dollars/ton for London copper [5]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc has a small rebound and narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - Industry Logic: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. A large - scale zinc smelter in Peru is on strike, but overall zinc ore supply is at a high level, and TC is rebounding. Domestic inventory is slightly increasing, and downstream demand is weak [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: With the U.S. dollar rebounding and commodity market sentiment easing, zinc is in a narrow - range fluctuation. In the long run, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be grasped. Focus on the range of [22,000, 22,600] for Shanghai zinc and [2,700, 2,800] dollars/ton for London zinc [8][9]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices have a short - term rebound, while alumina faces pressure on its rebound [10]. - Industry Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro sentiment has improved, and domestic policies are favorable. However, it is the off - season, and inventory build - up is emerging. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and domestic production capacity is stable, with a relatively loose supply situation [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - selling opportunities on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel also shows a rebound trend [12]. - Industry Logic: For nickel, overseas macro environment has improved, but cost support has weakened, and domestic supply pressure is significant. For stainless steel, production cuts are weak, and the off - season and high - inventory pressure continue [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - selling opportunities on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000 - 125,000] [13]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Review: The main contract LC2509 increased in positions and rose, with the late - session gains narrowing [14]. - Industry Logic: The price was boosted by the news of lithium salt plant production cuts, but only one smelter was actually under maintenance. There are large differences in downstream production schedules. In the long run, the supply is in surplus, and inventory is continuously reaching new highs [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term high - level range - bound movement, pay attention to the 65,000 resistance level [63,000 - 64,500] [15].