新能源及有色金属日报：政策端扰动较大，多晶硅短期波动显著放大-20250704

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, short - term supply - demand shows marginal improvement, but the overall fundamental situation remains weak without policy intervention. For polysilicon, it is affected by both a weak fundamental situation with significantly weakened consumption and policy disturbances, leading to amplified price fluctuations [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - Futures: On July 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 8185 yuan/ton and closed at 8010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton (-0.93%) compared to the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract 2509 was 380,840 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on July 4 was 51,854 lots, a decrease of 62 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - Spot: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8600 - 8800 (50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 8900 - 9100 (50) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 (50) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 (0) yuan/ton. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on July 3 was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week [1]. - Consumption: The weekly output of silicone DMC decreased slightly. The monthly output in July is expected to increase slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon is fair. The weekly operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises weakened slightly due to weak orders in the off - season [2]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - Futures: On July 3, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures showed a strong performance, opening at 35,700 yuan/ton and closing at 35,050 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 2.14% compared to the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 76,908 lots (95,005 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 482,063 lots [4]. - Spot: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 33.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type material was 36.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.20 (a 0.74% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.22GW (a - 4.43% change), polysilicon weekly output was 24,000.00 tons (a 1.69% change), and silicon wafer output was 11.90GW (a - 11.46% change) [4][5]. - Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component: The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, N - type 210mm, and N - type 210R silicon wafers, as well as various types of battery cells and components, remained mostly stable [5]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation of policies, and there may still be some pressure at 36,000 yuan/ton based on the current fundamentals [6].