液化石油气日报：部分装置检修，PDH开工率再度回落-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is weak and volatile, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Core Viewpoints - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the geopolitical premium has significantly declined, and the LPG futures market has returned to a narrow - range oscillation state with insufficient market drivers. The swap prices of propane and butane in the overseas market and the local spot prices of domestic LPG have dropped again. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains relatively loose. After the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East fades, the overseas supply is abundant, especially the US LPG exports are still at a high level. The domestic refinery output is gradually increasing, and the recent arrival volume has rebounded, with high inventory at East China ports. The combustion - end consumption is in the off - season. The overall operating load of PDH plants once rebounded to over 70% but dropped to 68% due to partial plant maintenance at the end of June. In an environment of weak terminal demand and low profits, the demand for PDH raw materials may not continue to increase [1] Market Analysis Summary Price Information - On July 3, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4120 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4555 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4430 - 4650 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4620 - 4740 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4580 - 4720 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of July 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 565 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton, and butane was 530 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4488 yuan/ton for propane, down 119 yuan/ton, and 4173 yuan/ton for butane, down 80 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China was 570 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton, and butane was 530 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4449 yuan/ton for propane, down 197 yuan/ton, and 4173 yuan/ton for butane, down 80 yuan/ton [1] Supply - Demand Situation - Supply: Overseas supply is abundant, especially US LPG exports are high, and the supply growth space has further expanded after the commissioning of export terminal expansion projects. The domestic refinery output is gradually increasing after the end of maintenance, and the recent arrival volume has rebounded, with high inventory at East China ports [1] - Demand: The combustion - end consumption is in the off - season. The overall operating load of PDH plants once rebounded to over 70% but dropped to 68% at the end of June due to partial plant maintenance. In an environment of weak terminal demand and low profits, the demand for PDH raw materials may not continue to increase [1]