KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-07-04 06:29Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Short-term increased investment in flash sales may pressure profits, but long-term ecosystem synergy is promising [1] - The company is expected to enhance its cloud business growth through active investment in AI infrastructure, which may offset some capital expenditure impacts [1] - The forecast for adjusted net profit for FY2026 and FY2027 has been revised down to 163.1 billion and 182.8 billion respectively, with a new FY2028 forecast of 202.8 billion, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 12.1%, and 10.9% [1][4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - FY2024A revenue is 941.168 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% - FY2025A revenue is projected at 996.347 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% - FY2026E revenue is expected to reach 1,102.080 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6% - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2024A is 157.479 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.4% - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2025A is projected at 158.122 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4% - The diluted EPS for FY2026E is expected to be 8.8, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 11.0 [8]