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宏观提振延续,聚烯烃偏强整理
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-04 06:31

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter-period: None [3] Core View of the Report - The macroeconomic boost continues, the commodity atmosphere is slightly pushed up, international oil prices and propane prices have slightly increased, and the cost support for polyolefins has strengthened [2] - Some previously overhauled plants have restarted, leading to higher capacity utilization and increased domestic supply, with Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 500,000-ton/year PP Line 4 successfully put into production [2] - The terminal industry is still in the off-season, with the agricultural film industry operating at a low level and other terminal industries maintaining weak operations. There are no signs of improvement in downstream demand, and factory operations remain at a low level, intensifying the expected supply-demand contradiction [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7284元/吨(-4),PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨(+2),LL华北现货为7190元/吨(+20),LL华东现货为7300元/吨(+0),PP华东现货为7120元/吨(+0),LL华北基差为-94元/吨(+24),LL华东基差为16元/吨(+4),PP华东基差为46元/吨(-2) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.5%(+3.0%),PP开工率为77.4%(-1.9%) [1] - PE油制生产利润为212.3元/吨(-154.6),PP油制生产利润为-207.7元/吨(-154.6),PDH制PP生产利润为243.3元/吨(-10.4) [1] III. Polyolefin Non-standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为-99.6元/吨(-1.2),PP进口利润为-538.3元/吨(-1.3),PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨(+0.2) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%(-0.3%),PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%(+0.5%),PP下游塑编开工率为43.2%(-0.4%),PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%(+0.0%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text