FICC日报：美国6月非农数据超预期，“大漂亮”法案涉险过关-20250704

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Views - The economic situation in China and the US is complex. In China, the economic sentiment has improved slightly, but there are still pressures in the manufacturing sector. In the US, the labor market is strong, but there are signs of weakness in retail sales and manufacturing [1][2]. - The "Big Beautiful" bill in the US has passed the House of Representatives and is expected to be signed into law by President Trump. The progress of trade negotiations among countries needs continuous attention [2]. - Macro - inflation trading is heating up, with the non - ferrous sector, gold, and the black sector being key areas of concern [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the May investment data is weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue. Exports are under pressure, while consumption shows resilience. The June official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI have all increased slightly, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. The new order index has entered the expansion range, and investment and consumption demand are expected to be released with the implementation of policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for possible further growth - stabilizing policies [1]. - In the US, the deadline for the suspension of tariffs is approaching. There are various trade negotiation situations among countries. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI has risen. The Fed Chairman has not ruled out the possibility of a July interest rate cut. The US House of Representatives has passed the "Big Beautiful" bill, which is expected to be signed by President Trump on July 4th. The US May retail sales decreased significantly, and the June ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract, but the June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, causing traders to abandon their bets on a July interest rate cut [1][2]. Macro - inflation Trading - Based on the 2018 tariff review, the tariff - adding events first lead to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the passage of the US "Big Beautiful" bill and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and gold related to inflation expectations are key areas of concern, and the black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [4]. To - do List - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026. The Iranian president has approved the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th and the verification of production increase [3].