甲醇日报：港口延续小幅累库-20250704

Report Overview - Investment Rating: Neutral [4] - Core View: Iranian methanol plants are gradually resuming production, ports are experiencing a slight inventory build - up, and the basis has returned to a reasonable level after the June paper - cargo delivery. There is still pressure from future arrivals, and MTO plants have maintenance plans in July. Inland coal - based methanol production remains at a high level, but traditional downstream industries are resilient, and inland factories have no inventory pressure. The impact of the "orderly exit of backward production capacity" mentioned in the meeting needs further attention [3] Market News and Key Data Inland - Coal price: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Production profit: Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 715 yuan/ton (+8) [1] - Methanol prices: Inner Mongolia North Line is 2010 yuan/ton (+8), Inner Mongolia South Line is 2020 yuan/ton (+0), Shandong Linyi is 2330 yuan/ton (+0), Henan is 2210 yuan/ton (+20), Hebei is 2185 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Basis: Inner Mongolia North Line basis is 196 yuan/ton (-3), Shandong Linyi basis is 116 yuan/ton (-10), Henan basis is - 4 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei basis is 31 yuan/ton (-10) [1] - Inventory: Longzhong inland factory inventory is 352,280 tons (+10,730), and Northwest factory inventory is 223,500 tons (+18,000) [1] - Pending orders: Longzhong inland factory pending orders are 233,250 tons (-7,450), and Northwest factory pending orders are 110,400 tons (-9,100) [1] Port - Methanol prices: Taicang methanol is 2460 yuan/ton (-25), Changzhou methanol is 2465 yuan/ton, Guangdong methanol is 2455 yuan/ton (+5) [2] - Basis: Taicang basis is 46 yuan/ton (-35), Guangdong basis is 41 yuan/ton (-5) [2] - Import price: CFR China is 283 dollars/ton (+0), and the East China import spread is 2 yuan/ton (-46) [2] - Inventory: Longzhong port total inventory is 673,660 tons (+3,160), Jiangsu port inventory is 333,000 tons (-23,500), Zhejiang port inventory is 176,500 tons (+37,000), Guangdong port inventory is 120,500 tons (-13,500) [2] - Downstream MTO operating rate: 84.60% (-2.82%) [2] Regional Spreads - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 25 yuan/ton (+28), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 100 yuan/ton (-33), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 120 yuan/ton (-25), Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 230 yuan/ton (+25), Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+30), East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 20 yuan/ton (-25) [2] Strategy - 9 - 1 inter - period spread: Do reverse arbitrage when the spread is high [4] Directory Summary I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Include figures such as methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Include figures of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit, and import spreads between different regions [26][30] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Include figures of methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol operating rate [34][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Include figures of spreads between different regions such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc [38][46][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Include figures of production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, etc [53][58]