生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250704

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant, which will limit significant price increases. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing significant price drops. It is not recommended to chase the rising prices [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 3, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 450 lots [2]. - The spot price and the LH2509 contract both underwent oscillatory adjustment, awaiting new driving factors [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,273 lots, with a remaining position of approximately 79,700 lots. The highest price was 14,420 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,250 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,370 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The overall supply of live pigs in the second and third quarters of 2025 will increase in an oscillatory manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may experience oscillatory adjustment [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent supply, and limited demand support in the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent supply, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The recommended strategy is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. The current "weight reduction - stable price" relationship in the spot market indicates that demand provides some support, preventing significant price drops. The 2509 contract is almost at the same level as the price trough, and the recent price increase may be due to reduced supply from the breeding sector. If the supply returns to normal, the price increase is unlikely to be sustainable, so it is not recommended to chase the rising prices [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 3, the national average live pig slaughter price was 15.46 yuan/kg, a 1.05% increase from the previous day. The prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price in Henan was 15.41 yuan/kg, a 0.26% decrease, and the price in Sichuan was 14.91 yuan/kg, a 1.22% increase [6]. - The futures prices of different contracts also showed different trends. For example, the 09 contract closed at 14,370 yuan/ton, a 0.21% increase from the previous day [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 70 yuan/ton, a 6.31% decrease [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data tracking charts for futures contracts' closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].