Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock indices, futures, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It provides market trends, influencing factors, and trading strategies for each sector, emphasizing the need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - financial - Stock Indices: The previous trading day saw most stock indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.90%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1309.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.2 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long positions in IF index futures on dips, and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][4][5]. - Treasury Bonds: The yields of some treasury bond futures contracts showed small fluctuations. The economic data is affected by tariff policies, and the export may face pressure in the future. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards liquidity, and the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - Precious Metals: The "Big and Beautiful Act" has been passed, and the US is about to implement a loose fiscal policy. The silver price shows resilience. The Fed is expected to maintain the interest rate in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - buying opportunities of silver [8][9]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price fluctuates downward. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low, providing strong support for the price. However, the short - term upward pressure increases. The reference operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 79,800 - 81,000 yuan/ton [11]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price rise is blocked due to inventory accumulation. The domestic and overseas inventory is at a low level, supporting the price, but the inventory increase and weak demand form pressure. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract is 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton [12]. - Zinc: The zinc price rises. The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The recent commodity atmosphere is good, which boosts the zinc price [13][14]. - Lead: The lead price shows a strong upward trend. The supply from the primary end is high, and the supply from the secondary end is in short supply. The downstream demand improves marginally. The domestic weak consumption restricts the increase of the SHFE lead price [15]. - Nickel: The nickel price fluctuates. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens. It is advisable to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [16]. - Tin: The tin price fluctuates. The supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the supply of refined tin is further tightened. The terminal demand is weak. The domestic tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate rebounds slightly. The production decreases, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,800 - 65,800 yuan/ton [18]. - Alumina: The alumina index falls. The spot price in some regions rises slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [19]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless steel price rises slightly. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. The spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of cast aluminum alloy rises slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price follows the cost end. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [21]. 3. Black Building Materials - Steel: The steel price fluctuates strongly. The "anti - involution and capacity - reduction" policy and the expected production reduction in Tangshan lead to the price increase. The inventory of rebar is depleted slowly, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil accumulates slightly. Attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery [23][24]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price rises. The recent shipment volume and arrival volume decline, and the demand weakens. The inventory changes little. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass price rebounds, and the soda ash price is expected to follow the glass to rebound, but the sustainability is limited. The supply of soda ash is still loose, and the inventory pressure is large [27][28]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: The manganese silicon price fluctuates, and the ferrosilicon price falls. It is recommended to wait and see before the price breaks through the downward trend line [29]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon price falls. The price is still in the downward trend since November 2024. It is necessary to observe whether the price can break through the long - term downward trend line [32]. 4. Energy Chemicals - Rubber: The rubber price adjusts downward. The bulls focus on the potential supply reduction, while the bears emphasize the weak demand. It is recommended to take a neutral short - term approach and a long - term bullish approach. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [35][38]. - Crude Oil: The WTI and Brent crude oil prices fall, while the INE crude oil price rises. The geopolitical risk re - emerges, and the oil price rebounds. It is advisable to wait and see [39]. - Methanol: The methanol 09 contract price rises. The inventory is low, and the supply is high. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - buying opportunities on dips [40]. - Urea: The urea 09 contract price falls. The supply decreases, and the demand may improve slightly. It is advisable to look for short - term long - buying opportunities on dips [41][42]. - Styrene: The spot price of styrene falls, and the futures price rises. The supply increases, and the demand decreases in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate downward [43]. - PVC: The PVC09 contract price falls. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure in the future [44]. - Ethylene Glycol: The EG09 contract price falls. The supply and demand both decline, and the inventory decreases. The price is expected to be weak in the future, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [45][46]. - PTA: The PTA09 contract price falls. The supply may decrease in July, and the demand is under slight pressure. Attention should be paid to long - buying opportunities following PX on dips [47]. - Para - Xylene: The PX09 contract price falls. The supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory may be depleted in the third quarter. Attention should be paid to long - buying opportunities following crude oil on dips [48]. - Polyethylene (PE): The PE futures price rises. The inventory is gradually depleted, and the price is expected to fluctuate [49]. - Polypropylene (PP): The PP futures price rises. The supply may increase, and the demand may decline seasonally. The LL - PP spread is expected to widen in the second half of the year [50]. 5. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The domestic hog price rises in most areas. The price is expected to fall in the north and remain stable in the south. It is recommended to buy short - term long positions on dips for near - term contracts and sell short on rallies for long - term contracts [52]. - Eggs: The egg price is generally stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to reduce short positions on dips or wait and see in the short term and wait for the opportunity to sell short on rallies in the medium term [53]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The US soybean price fluctuates. The domestic soybean meal price rises slightly. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to try long positions on dips at the low end of the cost range [54][56]. - Oils and Fats: The domestic oils and fats price fluctuates. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the supply increase is expected. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy hearing in July [57][59]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuates strongly. The domestic sugar sales are good, but the external market price falls, and the sugar price may continue to decline [60]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuates narrowly. The US cotton planting area is higher than expected, which is negative for the price. The domestic cotton price is supported by the expected Sino - US negotiation, but the de - stocking speed slows down. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [61][62].
五矿期货文字早评-20250704
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-04 06:46