国新国证期货早报-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 3, A - share market had a positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high this year, while trading volume decreased compared to the previous day [1]. - The weighted indices of coke and coking coal showed strength on July 3, with their prices rising [2][3]. - The supply - demand structures of coke and coking coal futures have improved, but there are still factors such as weak willingness of downstream steel mills to over - replenish and slow recovery of domestic mine production [4]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed different trends influenced by US sugar prices, spot prices, and monsoon rainfall in India [4]. - Shanghai rubber futures declined due to the drop in tire factory operating rates and weak tire replacement demand data [5]. - Palm oil prices reached a new high in weeks on July 3, with expected changes in Malaysia's inventory, production, and export volume in June [6]. - The international soybean market has limited upside space, and domestic soybean meal futures are in a volatile adjustment, with the focus on soybean arrivals and domestic inventory [7]. - The supply of live hogs is currently lower than expected, but there are risks of lagging production capacity and post - poned supply pressure in the far - month contracts [8]. - Shanghai copper prices lack further upward momentum, and the market needs to focus on macro - economic data and supply - demand situations [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures may be affected by the US - Vietnam trade framework agreement [9]. - Iron ore futures showed a volatile upward trend on July 3, with overseas shipments and domestic arrivals decreasing, and the market sentiment boosted by relevant news [9]. - Asphalt futures showed a volatile upward trend, but high - temperature and rainy seasons have hindered demand, so prices are expected to be volatile [9][10]. - Log futures need to focus on the 790 - 800 pressure range and 07 spot delivery information, and the spot market has weak demand [10]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - side policies and market sentiment [10]. - Alumina futures may be strong in the short term but face downward pressure in the long term, and attention should be paid to Guinea's mine - end news [11]. - Shanghai aluminum futures are supported by low inventory and cost in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory inflection point [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On July 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 3461.15, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17% to 10534.58, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.90% to 2164.09. The trading volume of the two markets was 1309.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3968.07 on July 3, up 24.38 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 3, the weighted index of coke closed at 1451.9, up 30.6 from the previous day [2]. - On July 3, the weighted index of coking coal closed at 871.2 yuan, up 34.7 from the previous day [3]. - After the fourth - round price adjustment of coke, the supply - demand structure has improved, but downstream steel mills are not very willing to over - replenish [4]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to increase slowly, and the total inventory is expected to continue to decline, with the supply - demand pattern improving [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected sufficient supply in Thailand and India, US sugar prices fluctuated downward on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures did not follow the decline on Thursday and showed a slight increase [4]. - US sugar prices rebounded at night, boosting Zhengzhou sugar futures to rise [4]. - India's monsoon rainfall in July may be "above normal", which is beneficial to agricultural production [4]. Shanghai Rubber - Due to the decline in tire factory operating rates this week and weak tire replacement demand data in June, Shanghai rubber futures declined on Thursday [5]. - The operating rates of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased both on a weekly and annual basis [5]. Palm Oil - On July 3, palm oil prices jumped and then fluctuated upward, reaching a new high in weeks, with a 0.45% increase from the previous day's close [6]. - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June will decrease by 0.24% compared to May, production will decrease by 4.04%, and exports will increase by 4.16% [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 3, the international CBOT November soybean futures closed at 1048.25 cents per bushel, up 0.05%. The market's upside space is limited [7]. - Domestic soybean meal futures are in a volatile adjustment, and the focus is on soybean arrivals and domestic inventory [7]. Live Hogs - On July 3, live hog futures rose slightly, with the main contract LH2509 closing at 14370 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [8]. - The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has decreased in the short term, but there are risks of increasing supply in the future and weak terminal demand [8]. Shanghai Copper - US non - farm payrolls in June were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate met expectations, which boosted the US dollar [8]. - LME copper inventory and domestic social inventory have increased slightly, and copper prices lack upward momentum [8]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13780 yuan per ton on Thursday night [9]. - The base price of cotton in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased, and inventory decreased by 50 lots compared to the previous day [9]. - The US - Vietnam trade framework agreement may boost textile exports in the short term [9]. Iron Ore - On July 3, the main contract of iron ore futures rose 2.45% to 733 yuan [9]. - Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals of iron ore have decreased, and steel mills' profits are good, with iron - making output increasing slightly [9]. Asphalt - On July 3, the main contract of asphalt futures rose 0.25% to 3588 yuan [9]. - Asphalt production has increased, but shipments have decreased, and high - temperature and rainy seasons have affected demand [9][10]. Logs - On July 3, log futures opened at 793, with a closing price of 792.5 and an increase of 625 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the 790 - 800 pressure range [10]. - The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and port inventory increased slightly, with weak demand [10]. Steel - On July 3, the prices of rb2510 and hc2510 were 3076 yuan/ton and 3208 yuan/ton respectively [10]. - The steel market is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and short - term steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [10]. Alumina - On July 3, the price of ao2509 was 3026 yuan/ton [11]. - In the short term, alumina futures are strong due to market sentiment, but in the long term, prices may face downward pressure [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 3, the price of al2508 was 20680 yuan/ton [11]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory and cost in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory inflection point [11].