航运衍生品数据日报-20250704

Shipping Derivatives Data Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1862, 1369, 2578, 161, 4717, 2030, 2123, and 2985 respectively [4]. - The previous values are 1870, 1342, 2772, 2083, 5352, 1835, 1937, and 3063 respectively [4]. - The percentage changes are -0.43%, 2.00%, -7.00%, -22.28%, -11.86%, 10.63%, 9.60%, and -2.55% respectively [4]. Contracts - The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1319.9, 1896.9, 1363.9, 1538.7, 1338.7, and 1172.9 respectively [4]. - The previous values are 1310.0, 1883.5, 1367.9, 1528.0, 1325.2, and 1174.2 respectively [4]. - The percentage changes are 0.76%, 0.71%, -0.29%, 0.70%, 1.02%, and -0.11% respectively [4]. Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 371, 35947, 31361, 2008, 3781, and 5782 respectively [4]. - The previous positions are 352, 36332, 31302, 6171, 3812, and 5682 respectively [4]. - The changes in positions are 19, -385, 59, -4163, -31, and 100 respectively [4]. Monthly Spreads - The current monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are 533.0, -174.8, and 365.8 respectively [4]. - The previous monthly spreads are 515.6, -160.1, and 353.8 respectively [4]. - The changes in monthly spreads are 17.4, -14.7, and 12.0 respectively [4]. Market News - After the JOLTS data release, traders slightly reduced the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cut. A rate cut is expected to start in September, with a 21% probability of a cut in July [4]. - The White House said that Trump may extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period in July [5]. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam General Secretary Su Lin, reducing US tariffs on Vietnamese products to 20% in exchange for full access to the Vietnamese market [5]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that a "substantial majority" of Fed members expect to cut interest rates later this year [6]. - Trump's tariff policy and low river levels have caused the worst supply - chain congestion at European ports since the pandemic, especially in Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg, expected to last for at least several months [6]. - US officials are seeking phased agreements with countries actively involved in trade negotiations, aiming for an agreement by July 9 [7]. EC Market Analysis Overview - The market is in a volatile state [8]. Spot Market - The central price in the second week of July is about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's price remained flat in the third week, higher than the expected decline [9]. - There is a market differentiation. Some OCEAN Alliance routes have strong quotes, and the PA Alliance plans to raise prices later this month, but some shipping companies report reduced inventory [9]. - From IPL quotes, there is sufficient cabin space, and shipping companies are still trying to attract cargo [9]. Futures Market - Affected by Maersk's flat price, contract 2508 has recovered from a deep discount, but the probability of continuous rise is low, and it will mainly fluctuate [10]. Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread and consider the 8 - 10 calendar spread. Due to less shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30, Maersk's strong performance in week 3 of July, and expected European congestion, contract 08 may outperform contract 10 [10].