Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs. The upcoming "Great Beauty" bill in the U.S. will further push up the fiscal deficit, facing the risk of liquidity flooding. The domestic market rotation continues, and the stock index rebounded on low volume on the day, and it is expected to oscillate and then repair [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the Caixin China Services PMI in June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, hitting the lowest level since Q4 2024. The Composite PMI Output Index rebounded 1.7 percentage points to 51.3 in June. From January to May, China's total service imports and exports were 3.25436 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, of which exports were 1.40337 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.1%; imports were 1.85099 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7%. Overseas, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill promoted by President Trump. The bill will raise the U.S. federal government's statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion, and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that this may increase the government's budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [1] - In the spot market, the three major A-share indexes oscillated and rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to close at 3461.15 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.90%. In terms of industries, most sector indexes rose. The electronics, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and communication industries led the gains, while the coal, transportation, and steel industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to decline to 1.3 trillion yuan. Overseas, the number of non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The employment numbers in April and May were revised up by a total of 16,000; the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, compared with an expected increase to 4.3%. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 233,000, the lowest in six weeks. After the data was released, the market abandoned its bets on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September declined. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher across the board, with the Nasdaq rising 1.02% to close at 20601.10 points [2] - In the futures market, the basis trends of stock index futures were divergent, and the discounts of IC and IM deepened again. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of IF increased, and the open interest of IC and IM rebounded [2] Strategy - The U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The upcoming "Great Beauty" bill in the U.S. will further push up the fiscal deficit, facing the risk of liquidity flooding. The domestic market rotation continues, and the stock index rebounded on low volume on the day, and it is expected to oscillate and then repair [3] Macro Economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and A-share trends, the U.S. Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the U.S. Treasury yield and A-share style trends [6][11][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on July 3, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.90%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.62%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.18%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.50%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.53% [13] - Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin balance [6][14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of stock index futures show that the trading volume of IF was 73,590, an increase of 2,786; the trading volume of IH was 34,173, a decrease of 3,073; the trading volume of IC was 64,956, a decrease of 523. The open interest of IF was 238,967, a decrease of 481; the open interest of IH was 80,640, a decrease of 1,877; the open interest of IC was 220,451, an increase of 1,566 [15] - Charts show the open interest and open interest ratio of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, as well as the net open interest of foreign capital in these contracts [6][18][20] - The basis data of stock index futures show the basis values and changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods [42][43] - The inter - period spread data of stock index futures show the spread values and changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods [49][50]
FICC日报:缩量反弹,板块轮动-20250704
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-04 07:07