贵金属数据日报-20250704

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, gold prices are restricted by improved market risk appetite due to trade agreements and export restrictions relief. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties and the potential passage of the Trump administration's bill, gold prices are expected to oscillate. Silver prices break through the $87 per ounce mark but may not continue unilateral upward movement because of the impact on interest - rate cut expectations. In the long - term, considering the trade war background, possible Fed rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - 内外盘金/银15点价格: On July 3, 2025, London gold spot was $3362.28 per ounce, London silver spot was $36.76 per ounce, COMEX gold was $3372.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver was $37.03 per ounce. Compared with July 2, gold prices rose by about 0.9% and silver prices by about 2.2% - 2.4%. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed varying degrees of increase [5]. - 价差/比价跟踪: As of July 3, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was -$1.92 per gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was -$20 per kilogram. Compared with July 2, the gold spread decreased by 19.0% and the silver spread increased by 53.8%. The gold and silver price ratios also changed to different extents [5]. Position Data - COMEX and ETF Positions: As of July 2, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 14846.12421 tons. COMEX gold and silver non - commercial long and short positions also changed compared with July 1, with some positions showing a decline [5]. Inventory Data - SHFE and COMEX Inventories: On July 3, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 18456.00 kilograms, showing no change compared with July 2, and SHFE silver inventory was 1340792.00 kilograms, up 0.16%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.20% [5]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - Rates and Indexes: On July 3, 2025, the dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, down 0.03% compared with July 2. The dollar index was 96.78, up 0.14%. Other rates such as the 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYMEX crude oil also showed different percentage changes [5]. Market News - Trade and Policy News: Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, with Vietnam imposing tariffs on exports to the US and opening its market. The US lifted export restrictions on Chinese chip design software and removed a restrictive license requirement for ethane exports to China. The Trump administration's "big and beautiful" bill advanced in the House of Representatives. US economic data such as non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and factory orders were released, and the US Treasury Secretary hinted at possible Fed rate cuts [5].