20250704申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250704

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to the combination of low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices, and mixed downstream demand factors [1]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations as the market expects improved concentrate supply and potential recovery in smelting supply, along with mixed downstream demand [1]. - Aluminum may have narrow - range oscillations. The aluminum market is affected by factors such as the high - level shock of alumina operating capacity, cost support, and changes in electrolytic aluminum ingot production and demand [1]. - Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term due to factors like tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia, new tariff policies, and mixed supply - demand situations in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry growing positively, automobile production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. Copper prices may range - bound fluctuate, and factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output should be monitored [1]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and potential recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output should be watched [1]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum in the night session fell 0.17%. The strengthening of the Fed's easing expectation boosted the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of alumina is oscillating at a high level, with sufficient spot supply, but cost support has emerged, leading to an oscillating situation in the alumina futures market. In the short term, the casting volume of electrolytic aluminum may decrease, demand may weaken, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased month - on - month but remains at a low level. Shanghai aluminum may operate with high - level oscillations, and aluminum alloy futures may have narrow - range oscillations [1]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel in the night session rose 0.86%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia is still tight overall, and local demand for Philippine nickel ore has increased, driving up the price of Philippine nickel ore. New tariff policies in Indonesia may raise local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel salt enterprises have production - cut expectations, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel salt prices. Stainless steel demand is in the traditional off - season, and prices are mainly oscillating. Fundamentally, there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market, and nickel prices may oscillate [1]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M) (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 80,780 | 65 | 9,952 | 87.61 | 93,250 | 2,000 | | Aluminum | 20,850 | - 30 | 2,606 | - 5.75 | 356,625 | 8,000 | | Zinc | 22,310 | 95 | 2,738 | - 21.99 | 113,425 | - 1,475 | | Nickel | 121,120 | - 1,690 | 15,355 | - 187.48 | 204,102 | 216 | | Lead | 17,145 | - 280 | 2,063 | - 26.47 | 268,150 | - 1,925 | | Tin | 268,270 | 1,040 | 33,805 | - 42.00 | 2,215 | - 5 | [2]