ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-07-04 07:25Core Insights - The current CITIC Bank Index has been rising since November 2022, marking a duration of 2 years and 8 months, while the Shanghai Composite Index has been in a narrow range for 8 months from November 2024 to June 2025, indicating a technical bull market for the CITIC Bank Index [1][12] - Historical analysis of the bull markets in the liquor, new energy vehicle, and coal industries reveals that the banking sector may be in the mid-stage of a bull market, with the CITIC Bank Index's price-to-book (PB) ratio expected to recover from 0.5X in October 2022 to around 0.8-0.9X [1][5] Liquor Industry (2016-2021) - The liquor market experienced a significant rise driven by wealth effects and consumption upgrades, with the index increasing by 180% from January 2016 to June 2018, supported by a 86.5% increase in net profit attributable to the parent company [2][25] - From November 2018 to February 2021, the MSCI expansion and increased foreign capital inflow provided additional funds, leading to a 302% rise in the index, with a 181.7% increase in price-to-earnings (PE) ratio [2][33] New Energy Vehicle Industry (2019-2021) - The new energy vehicle sector saw a global industry resonance, with significant policy support and a focus on thematic investments, resulting in a 68.2% increase in the index from November 2019 to January 2021, despite a 9.9% decline in net profit [40][46] - From March 2021 to November 2021, the rapid increase in penetration rates and public fund allocations led to a 75.4% rise in the index, driven by performance realization [40][51] Coal Industry (2020-2024) - The coal sector experienced a new boom due to supply-demand imbalances and significant capital expenditure reductions from 2016 to 2018, leading to a 158.1% increase in the index from March 2020 to September 2022, primarily driven by a substantial increase in net profit [4][25] - From June 2023 to June 2024, the coal sector's high dividend characteristics attracted capital, resulting in a notable valuation increase [4][29] Banking Sector (2022-Present) - The banking sector is characterized by a macro narrative of "asset scarcity" and potential incremental funds from insurance capital and public fund adjustments, indicating that the sector is currently in a bull market [5][12] - The duration of the banking bull market, which began in October 2022, is comparable to traditional industries like liquor and coal, suggesting it may still have room to grow [5][12]