从上一轮“去产能”关键点看“反内卷”

Group 1: Key Points on "Capacity Reduction" and "Anti-Involution" - The previous round of "capacity reduction" was effective due to four key points: its importance was elevated to the overall stability of people's livelihoods and society, with capacity reduction being prioritized in the 2015 Central Economic Work Conference[3] - The central government clearly defined the scale of excess capacity, established exit plans, and included them in local government assessments[3] - State-owned enterprises played a crucial role, undertaking approximately 80% of steel and 70% of coal capacity reduction tasks[3] - Ensuring employment and livelihoods was a critical bottom line during the capacity reduction process, with policies in place to prevent mass unemployment and major social incidents[3] Group 2: Current Market Outlook and Policy Implications - The direction of "anti-involution" is confirmed, which helps improve market expectations, but the intensity of capacity reduction may be gradual[4] - Short-term focus will be on controlling incremental capacity while optimizing existing capacity, with policies targeting the regulation of ineffective investment behaviors by local governments[4] - Industries with low capacity utilization and high energy consumption, such as non-metallic mineral products, are likely to see faster exit of outdated capacity[5] - Supply-side reforms have historically had a significant upward effect on PPI, but the impact varies based on the speed of supply-demand gap closure[6] - Current industrial product prices may face challenges due to low capacity utilization and high inventory levels, making short-term improvements unlikely[6]