中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌互现，原油板块整体上涨-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic economic stability continues, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources like gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. The June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there are still structural concerns due to tariff policies and cautious consumer expectations. The ISM manufacturing PMI in June slightly rebounded but remained below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. May's job vacancies reached a high level, and core durable goods orders surged [6]. - Domestic Macro: China's manufacturing PMI has increased for two consecutive months, with production and demand both warming up. However, the upward drive depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of new ones. The real estate market is in a weak state after the "small spring", and infrastructure physical work has decreased seasonally. Local special bond issuance showed a surge at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - Asset Views: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - Macro: Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. In China, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented. Abroad, inflation expectations have flattened, and economic growth expectations have improved [8]. - Financial: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures may fluctuate upward, stock index options should focus on hedging, and treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate [8]. - Precious Metals: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in short - term adjustment, and gold and silver prices will fluctuate [8]. - Shipping: Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. The freight rate of container shipping to Europe will fluctuate [8]. - Black Building Materials: Supply disturbances have increased, and black commodities have rebounded significantly. Most varieties, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, will fluctuate [8]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: The reality of low inventory and the expectation of weak demand coexist, and non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some varieties like zinc may decline, while others will fluctuate [8]. - Energy and Chemicals: Affected by extreme weather in Europe, the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate. Some varieties like crude oil may decline, while others will fluctuate or rise [10]. - Agriculture: Driven by the improvement of the macro - environment, agricultural products have rebounded. Most varieties will fluctuate, and some like soybean oil and short - fiber may rise [10].