【国富期货早间看点】路透预计马棕6月库存降0.24%至199万吨美豆当周出口销售净增70.14万吨符合预期 20250704-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including palm oil, soybeans, and their derivatives, along with important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major production areas, international supply - demand dynamics, and international and domestic news. It also presents data on capital flows and currency exchange rates, which can help investors understand the current market situation and potential trends [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - The closing price of BMD's September palm oil contract was 4078.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.74% and an overnight decrease of 0.37% [1]. - Brent's September contract on ICE closed at 68.85, down 0.43% from the previous day and up 0.20% overnight [1]. - NYMEX's August crude oil contract closed at 67.18, down 0.52% from the previous day and up 0.36% overnight [1]. - CBOT's November soybean contract closed at 1048.25, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.83% overnight [1]. - CBOT's December soybean meal contract closed at 292.40, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.51% overnight [1]. - CBOT's December soybean oil contract closed at 54.54, down 0.96% from the previous day and down 0.33% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 97.08, up 0.34%. The CNY/USD exchange rate was 7.1523, down 0.03%. The MYR/USD exchange rate was 4.2219, up 0.61%. The IDR/USD exchange rate was 16218, up 0.42%. The BRL/USD exchange rate was 5.4176, down 0.57%. The ARS/USD exchange rate was 1231.000, up 0.20%. The SGD/USD exchange rate was 1.2720, down 0.03% [1]. 02 Spot Market - For DCE's September 2025 palm oil contract, the spot price in North China was 8690, with a basis of 220 and a daily basis change of - 30; in East China, the spot price was 8570, with a basis of 100 and a daily basis change of - 100; in South China, the spot price was 8490, with a basis of 20 and a daily basis change of 0 [2]. - For DCE's September 2025 soybean oil contract, the spot price in Shandong was 8150, with a basis of 146 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Jiangsu, the spot price was 8210, with a basis of 206 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Guangdong, the spot price was 8230, with a basis of 226 and a daily basis change of - 8; in Tianjin, the spot price was 8140, with a basis of 136 and a daily basis change of - 48 [2]. - For DCE's September 2025 soybean meal contract, the spot price in Shandong was 2830, with a basis of - 129 and a daily basis change of - 7; in Jiangsu, the spot price was 2810, with a basis of - 149 and a daily basis change of - 7; in Guangdong, the spot price was 2820, with a basis of - 139 and a daily basis change of 3; in Tianjin, the spot price was 2920, with a basis of - 39 and a daily basis change of - 7 [2]. - The CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans was 469 dollars per ton, with a CNF premium of 230 cents per bushel. The CNF quote for Argentine soybeans was 458 dollars per ton, with a CNF premium of 200 cents per bushel [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In the US soybean - producing states from July 8th to July 12th, temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be above normal [4]. - In the US Midwest, there will be local to scattered showers early next week, with temperatures near to above normal. The western region will have local to sporadic showers from Friday to Sunday, with temperatures above normal on Friday - Saturday and near to above normal on Sunday. The eastern region will be mainly dry on Friday, with local to sporadic showers from Saturday to Sunday and temperatures above normal from Friday to Sunday. In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, there will be local to scattered showers from Monday to Thursday next week, and it will be dry on Friday. Temperatures will be near to above normal from Monday to Friday next week [6]. International Supply - Demand - The expected palm oil inventory in Malaysia in June 2025 is 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from the previous period. Production is expected to be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease from May. Exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase from May [1][8]. - Indonesia will revoke the license of a palm oil plantation operating illegally in a national park [9]. - As of the week ending July 1st, about 8% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought, down from 12% the previous week and 9% last year [9]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean export sales increased by 701,400 tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean export sales increased by 462,400 tons, up 15% from the previous week and 62% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean export sales increased by 239,000 tons. US soybean exports were 251,600 tons, down 5% from the previous week and 27% from the four - week average [10]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean meal export sales increased by 703,600 tons, higher than expected. Current - market - year soybean meal export sales increased by 306,200 tons, up 226% from the previous week and 69% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean meal export sales increased by 397,400 tons. US soybean meal exports were 238,300 tons, down 15% from the previous week and 8% from the four - week average [11]. - As of the week ending June 26th, US soybean oil export sales increased by 11,800 tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean oil export sales increased by 11,800 tons, up 193% from the previous week and 156% from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean oil export sales increased by 0 tons. US soybean oil exports were 5,900 tons, up 2% from the previous week and down 55% from the four - week average [12]. - From June 29th to July 5th, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 3.7051 million tons, up from 2.6042 million tons last week; soybean meal exports are expected to be 623,800 tons, up from 514,900 tons last week; and corn exports are expected to be 347,200 tons, up from 200,400 tons last week [12]. - As of the week ending June 29th, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 47.16% to 173,500 tons from the previous week. From August 1st, 2024, to June 29th, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 9.1055 million tons, a 50.91% increase from the same period last year. As of June 29th, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.2112 million tons [13]. - Argentina has completed the 2024/25 soybean harvest, with a final output of 50.3 million tons, a 10 - million - ton increase from the previous year [13]. - On July 3rd, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 9,299 tons, a decrease of 8,834 tons (49%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was 165,900 tons, a decrease of 288,800 tons from the previous day. The开机 rate of all - sample oil mills was 64.48%, a 2.11% decrease from the previous day [15]. - On July 3rd, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.17, a 0.21 - point decrease from the previous day. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 112.13, a 0.24 - point decrease from the previous day. The average pork price in national agricultural product wholesale markets was 20.29 yuan/kg, a 1.2% decrease from the previous day; beef was 63.67 yuan/kg, unchanged; mutton was 59.20 yuan/kg, a 0.9% decrease; eggs were 7.07 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease; and white - striped chickens were 17.18 yuan/kg, a 0.5% increase [15]. International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 33%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 3% [18]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 28th was 233,000, lower than the expected 240,000 [18]. - The US's seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in June were 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000 [18]. - The US unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% [18]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5 [18]. - The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 52.9, slightly lower than the expected 53.1 [18]. - The US factory orders in May increased by 8.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [18]. - The US trade deficit in May was 71.5 billion dollars, slightly higher than the expected 71 billion dollars [18]. - The US has lifted export restrictions on three major global chip - design software suppliers to China [18]. - Trump's tax - cut bill passed the House of Representatives. The bill will increase the US debt by 3.4 trillion dollars and is expected to be signed by Trump on July 4th [19]. - The final value of the eurozone's services PMI in June was 50.5, higher than the expected 50 [20]. Domestic News - On July 3rd, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1523, a 23 - point decrease (RMB appreciation) [21]. - On July 3rd, the People's Bank of China conducted 57.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 509.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan on the day [21]. - China's Caixin Services PMI in June was 50.6, lower than the expected 50.9 [21]. - From January to May 2025, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 3.25436 trillion yuan, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1.40337 trillion yuan, a 15.1% increase, and imports were 1.85099 trillion yuan, a 2.7% increase. The service trade deficit was 447.62 billion yuan, a 135.22 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous year [21]. 05 Capital Flows On July 3rd, 2025, the futures market saw a net capital inflow of 9.344 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 7.67 billion yuan (including a 187 - million - yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, a 1.053 - billion - yuan inflow in chemical futures, a 1.376 - billion - yuan inflow in black - series futures, and a 5.053 - billion - yuan inflow in metal futures). Stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 1.674 billion yuan [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.