环球市场动态：中国通过越南进行转口贸易难度更大

Global Market Dynamics - The US stock market showed strong performance with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, driven by better-than-expected non-farm payroll data [3][10] - European markets also rose, with the UK leading gains amid reduced political uncertainty [10] - The A-share market in China saw an increase, particularly in sectors related to Apple and innovative pharmaceuticals [17] Trade and Economic Agreements - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and a 40% tariff on goods subject to "transshipment" from China, complicating China's trade through Vietnam [6] - The agreement emphasizes the importance of origin certification, which may impact China's ability to utilize Vietnam for trade [6] - The report suggests that Chinese companies may accelerate overseas expansion, creating a new cycle of local production and consumption [6] Employment and Economic Indicators - The US added 256,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [9][10] - However, the report indicates underlying weaknesses in the job market, with a significant number of discouraged workers not counted in the labor force [9] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September due to ongoing economic concerns [9] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, large technology stocks faced declines, while healthcare and materials sectors showed strength [12][13] - Macau's gaming industry is projected to recover, with a forecasted GGR growth of 7.6% in 2025, driven by increased market share for major operators [15] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the submarine cable sector, driven by AI and increased demand for deep-sea technology [20] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose following strong non-farm payroll data, with the yield curve flattening as the market adjusts to reduced rate cut expectations [29][32] - The report notes a significant increase in the US national debt ceiling by $5 trillion, alleviating immediate default risks [32] - Asian investment-grade bonds remained stable, with slight narrowing of spreads observed [32]