Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Silver, industrial silicon, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - Bearish: Alumina, zinc, tin, log, LPG [1][2] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock index, bond futures, gold, copper, nickel, stainless steel, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, coking coal, coke, cotton, corn, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, styrene, PVC, VCM, shipping freight rates [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and there are few positive factors at home and abroad. The stock index faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space. The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price of gold, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price of gold. The macro and commodity attributes still support the price of silver, which may be strong in the short term [1]. - The unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The copper price may oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk. The aluminum price has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand. The price of alumina and zinc may be weak. The nickel price has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. The stainless steel has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. The price of tin has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - The industrial silicon is favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment. The polysilicon is expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment. The supply of lithium carbonate has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active. The rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore may oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. The price of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The coking coal and coke may oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions [1]. - The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, and the short-term view is bullish. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. The corn price may oscillate, and the C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The soybean price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The pulp price is currently undervalued with macro positives. The log price is weak. The live pig futures may be stable due to the weak impact of the current slaughter on the spot price [1]. - The crude oil and fuel oil may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States. The asphalt price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand. The BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short term. The PTA price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The ethylene glycol price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales [1]. - The short fiber price may oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The styrene price may oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The PVC price may oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand. The VCM price may oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. The LPG price has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand and the narrow spread between industrial and civil use [2]. - The shipping freight rate on the European route is expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2]. Summary by Industry Segments Macro Finance - Stock Index: Faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern due to the shrinking trading volume and few positive factors at home and abroad. Follow-up attention should be paid to the guidance of macro incremental information on the direction of the stock index [1]. - Bond Futures: Favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold: The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price [1]. - Silver: The macro and commodity attributes still support the price, which may be strong in the short term [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: May oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk and the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand [1]. - Alumina: The price may be weak due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Zinc: Has a risk of decline due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States and the continuous inventory accumulation [1]. - Nickel: Has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. Short-term interval operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the improvement of demand [1]. - Stainless Steel: Has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. Short-term operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material changes and the steel mill production schedule [1]. - Tin: Has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment [1]. - Polysilicon: Expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - Hot-Rolled Coil: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The upward space is suppressed by the production restriction of steel mills, but the high short-term demand provides support [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The price is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The production decreases under the pressure of profit, and the demand weakens marginally [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The price is under pressure due to the short-term increase in production, the weakening of demand, and the insufficient cost support [1]. - Coking Coal: May oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions. The short-term trading level cannot be falsified, so the short positions on the futures market can be temporarily avoided [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal, focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil: Favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, the short-term view is bullish. Follow-up attention should be paid to the hearing on the 8th and the supply and demand reports from the producing areas [1]. - Cotton: The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. Follow-up attention should be paid to the progress of the US economic recession and the Sino-US tariff war [1]. - Sugar: The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. Follow-up attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil price on the sugar production ratio in Brazil's new crushing season [1]. - Corn: The short-term import of corn and the release of brown rice have impacted the market, but the impact is within the market expectation. The old crop of corn has a tightening supply and demand expectation, and the decline of the futures price is expected to be limited. The C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - Soybeans: May oscillate due to the strong US soybeans under the expectation of Sino-US trade negotiations and the slight decline of the Brazilian premium. The domestic oil mills have a phenomenon of urging提货, and the basis is weak. Short-term attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, and waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - Pulp: The outer quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, the domestic demand is weak, and the current valuation is low, with macro positives [1]. - Log: The current season is the off-season, and the supply decreases limitedly even when the outer price rises. The view is weak [1]. - Live Pigs: The inventory is expected to be abundant on the futures market, and the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. The short-term spot price is less affected by the slaughter, but the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: May oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - Fuel，Oil: Similar to crude oil, may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - Asphalt: The price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand [1]. - BR Rubber: The price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the limited support from the raw material end, the pressure on the synthetic rubber fundamentals, the high basis, and the follow-up of the butadiene price. Follow-up attention should be paid to the price adjustment of butadiene and the spot price of cis-polybutadiene rubber, as well as the de-stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - PTA: The price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the bottle chips and short fibers will enter the maintenance cycle in July [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales. The macro sentiment has improved, and the chemical industry has followed the downward trend of the crude oil price [1]. - Short Fiber: May oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The short fiber factory has a maintenance plan [2]. - Styrene: May oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The market speculative demand has weakened, and the pure benzene price has rebounded slightly [2]. - PVC: May oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand [2]. - VCM: May oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. Follow-up attention should be paid to the change of liquid chlorine [2]. - LPG: Has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand, the narrow spread between industrial and civil use, and the slow decline of the spot price [2]. Others - Shipping Freight Rate on the European Route: Expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2].
日度策略参考-20250704
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-04 08:10