美国2025年6月非农数据：私人部门疲软显露，政府部门撑起半边天

Employment Data Overview - In June 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 110,000 and slightly up from the previous month's 144,000[2] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, indicating a slight improvement in the labor market[2] Private vs. Government Employment - Private sector employment added only 74,000 jobs, nearly half of May's increase of 137,000, highlighting a significant slowdown[2] - Government employment surged by 73,000, with state government jobs rising to 47,000, the highest since February 2023, signaling a shift in fiscal policy towards expansion[2] Sector-Specific Insights - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 7,000, while wholesale employment also fell by 7,000, attributed to inventory buildup and weak demand[2] - Service sector jobs saw a decline of over 53%, with healthcare and accommodation sectors experiencing the most significant drops[2] Wage and Participation Rate Trends - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, the lowest since 2023, indicating a shrinking workforce[2] - Hourly wage growth slowed, particularly in durable goods manufacturing and healthcare, with rates dropping to -0.3% and -0.1% respectively[2] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the employment data release, market expectations for a September interest rate cut decreased from 71.5% to 68.3%[3] - The strong government employment figures and the passage of the "Beautiful America Act" suggest a potential shift towards more expansive fiscal policies in the second half of the year[3]