GF SECURITIES·2025-07-04 08:20Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of deep-sea wind power development in China, with a significant increase in both onshore and offshore wind installations expected in 2025, projecting 100GW for onshore and 15GW for offshore [5][15][19] - The transition from a "price war" to a "value war" in the wind turbine market is noted, emphasizing the importance of technology development and cost control to achieve a reasonable price recovery for equipment [5][15] - The global wind power market is expected to add 170GW in new installations in 2025, with China contributing 115GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.20% [5][15] Policy Support and Market Dynamics - Domestic policies are driving the rapid development of offshore wind power, with various provinces setting ambitious targets for wind energy installations under the 14th Five-Year Plan [15][19] - The report indicates that the bidding volume for wind projects has exceeded expectations, particularly in offshore wind, which is expected to be a highlight for growth in the coming years [5][19] - The report anticipates a structural price increase in the supply chain, particularly in the casting and forging segments, due to tight supply and increasing demand [5][15] Supply Chain and Component Analysis - The demand for large-scale wind turbine components, such as cast and forged shafts, is expected to tighten, with market sizes projected at 6.874 billion CNY for forged shafts and 2.077 billion CNY for cast shafts in 2025-2026 [5][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of production capacity for large blades, as companies with such capabilities are expected to gain significant pricing power [5][15] - The offshore wind market is experiencing a shift towards floating wind farms, with various countries enhancing policies to boost offshore wind installation demand [5][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are advancing in offshore wind deployment and have a high proportion of overseas customers, including major manufacturers like Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Sany Heavy Energy [5][15] - Specific segments to watch include complete turbine manufacturers, casting and forging companies, and those involved in the supply of cables and transformers [5][15] - The investment strategy emphasizes the potential for structural price increases in the supply chain, particularly in components that are currently in high demand [5][15]