申万期货品种策略日报：国债-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed performance, with the T2509 contract falling 0.02% and the positions changing little. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally declined. Key - term Treasury bond yields in China also showed mixed trends, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield rising 0.45bp to 1.64%. Overseas, US, German, and Japanese key - term Treasury bond yields had different changes. At present, the external environment is more complex, the domestic real - estate market is not yet stable, effective demand is insufficient, and prices are continuously low. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the loose capital situation will support Treasury bond futures prices [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - Prices and Positions: The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.02%. The positions of some contracts changed, such as the T2509 contract's positions changing little, while the positions of other contracts had increases or decreases. The trading volume of each contract also varied [2]. - IRR: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - Short - term market interest rates generally declined. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate dropped 4.1bp, DR007 interest rate dropped 5.2bp, and GC007 interest rate dropped 5.3bp [2]. Domestic Treasury Bond Yields - Key - term Treasury bond yields in China showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.45bp to 1.64%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 23.01bp [2]. Overseas Treasury Bond Yields - US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 1.5bp [2]. Macro News - Domestic: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 3, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and most institutions expect the annual infrastructure investment growth rate to reach 6% [3]. - Overseas: US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. The market abandoned the bet on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80%. The US House of Representatives passed the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will increase the federal government's debt ceiling by 5 trillion US dollars and may increase the government budget deficit by 3.4 trillion US dollars in the next decade [3]. Industry Information - On July 3, most money - market interest rates in China declined, with some reaching new lows. US Treasury bond yields rose collectively, mainly due to strong US labor - market data, which cooled market expectations of a Fed rate cut [3].