农林牧渔行业双周报（2025、6、20-2025、7、3）：关注产能去化进程-20250704

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [43] Core Views - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 2.9% from June 20 to July 3, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.35 percentage points [12][15] - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in the fisheries (11.56%), agricultural product processing (4.39%), animal health (3.63%), feed (2.85%), breeding (2.34%), and planting (2.27%) sectors [15][19] - Approximately 92% of individual stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating a generally favorable market environment [16] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index's overall price-to-book (PB) ratio is approximately 2.65 times, reflecting a recovery followed by a slight decline in the past two weeks. The current valuation is at about 58.9% of the historical average since 2006, indicating it remains at a historical low [20][24] Key Industry Data - Pig Farming: - The average price of external three-line pigs increased from 14.22 CNY/kg to 15.3 CNY/kg during the reporting period [24] - The number of breeding sows reached 40.42 million, slightly up by 0.1% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a stable supply near the upper limit of the regulatory range [24] - Profit from self-bred pigs rose to 119.72 CNY/head, while profit from purchased piglets improved to -26.26 CNY/head [29] - Poultry Farming: - The average price of broiler chicks was 1.36 CNY/chick, and layer chicks were 3.9 CNY/chick, both showing a slight decline [31] - The average price of broiler chickens was 6.75 CNY/kg, with a profit margin of -2.17 CNY/chick, indicating continued pressure on profitability [34] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in pig prices due to supply adjustments, while also highlighting the ongoing challenges in poultry profitability. The feed sector is expected to benefit from reduced raw material cost pressures, and the pet market is projected to expand rapidly, with leading domestic companies likely to experience significant growth [43][44]