房地产及建材行业双周报（2025、06、20-2025、07、03）：二手房延续“以价换量”行情销售回暖持续性仍需观察-20250704

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2]. Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing a "price for volume" trend, with sales recovery needing further observation. The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 0.75% month-on-month and 7.26% year-on-year, while new residential properties saw a slight increase of 0.19% month-on-month and 2.59% year-on-year [4][29]. - High-energy cities are showing significant sales increases, with Beijing's second-hand housing transactions up 20.4% and Shenzhen's new residential sales up 24.4% year-on-year [4][30]. - The building materials sector is facing challenges such as weak demand and excess capacity, but there are expectations for price stabilization and improvement in profitability due to industry self-discipline and reduced competition [5][50]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery in high-energy cities, with a focus on improved housing projects. However, overall housing prices are still slowly declining. The first four months of the year saw a sales recovery, but May's traditional peak season showed a year-on-year decline, indicating that the sustainability of this recovery needs to be monitored [4][30]. - The report suggests focusing on stable central state-owned enterprises and regional leaders in first and second-tier cities, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others [4][30]. Building Materials Market Overview - The building materials sector is currently facing weak demand and inventory pressures. The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to promote high-quality development and prevent excessive competition, which may support price recovery and improve profitability [5][50]. - The report highlights that leading cement companies are shifting from price competition to value creation through technological innovation and mergers and acquisitions, which could provide growth opportunities [5][50]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and solid fundamentals, such as North New Building Materials and Rabbit Baby [5][51].