沪镍不锈钢市场周报：供需两弱政策利好，镍不锈钢震荡偏强-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel both oscillated upwards. Shanghai nickel had a weekly increase of 1.86% with an amplitude of 3.66%, closing at 120,480 yuan/ton; stainless steel had a weekly increase of 0.87% with an amplitude of 2.50%, closing at 12,730 yuan/ton [7]. - Macroscopically, the better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in the US in June and the decline in the unemployment rate have significantly reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of nickel and stainless steel are both weak currently, but there are policy benefits. Technically, both are expected to have a short - term upward adjustment. It is recommended to either wait and see or go long with a light position [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - Weekly Review: The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated upwards, with a weekly increase of 1.86% and an amplitude of 3.66%, closing at 120,480 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomic data in the US has reduced the Fed rate - cut expectation. On the supply side, the PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased the cost of nickel resources, and the domestic nickel ore inventory has decreased. Some non - integrated smelters have cut production due to losses. On the demand side, stainless steel mills have compressed profits and reduced production, while the demand for new energy vehicles is rising but has limited impact. Currently, supply and demand are both weak, domestic inventory is decreasing, and overseas inventory is stable. Technically, it is rising with a reduction in positions, and attention should be paid to the MA60 resistance. It is expected to have a short - term upward adjustment [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to either wait and see or go long with a light position [7]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Weekly Review: Stainless steel oscillated upwards, with a weekly increase of 0.87% and an amplitude of 2.50%, closing at 12,730 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: On the raw material side, although the PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased costs, the release of nickel - iron production capacity has led to a decline in nickel - iron prices, weakening cost support. On the supply side, steel mills are under greater cost - inversion pressure and have increased production cuts. It is expected that stainless steel production will further decline. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off - season, and the macro - market is uncertain, with continued pressure on export demand. Domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory. Technically, it is rising with a reduction in positions, and attention should be paid to the MA60 resistance. It is expected to have a short - term upward adjustment [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to either wait and see or go long with a light position [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Trends: As of July 4, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) in the whole country was 910 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 122,270 yuan/ton, up 1,790 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,730 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - Basis Situations: As of July 4, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 123,450 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,180 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 570 yuan/ton [17]. - Price Ratios: As of July 4, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.6, up 0.06 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.19 yuan/ton, down 0.05 from last week [21]. - Net Long Positions: As of July 4, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 1,557 lots, a decrease of 1,202 lots compared to June 30, 2025. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 4,467 lots, an increase of 2,038 lots compared to June 30, 2025 [29]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - Nickel Ore and Electrolytic Nickel: As of July 4, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 871,840 tons, an increase of 14.83% from last week. The production profit of electrowon nickel was 1,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,550 yuan/ton from last week [32][33]. - Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Trade: In April 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [37]. - Exchange Inventories: As of July 4, the LME nickel inventory was 21,059 tons, a decrease of 979 tons from last week. As of June 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 24,718 tons, a decrease of 2,357 tons from last week [39][42]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - Stainless Steel Production and Trade: In May 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.4629 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%. Among them, the production of 400 - series stainless steel was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.44%; the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.7847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17%; the production of 200 - series stainless steel was 976,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.58%. In May 2025, the import volume of stainless steel was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [46]. - Regional Stainless Steel Inventories: As of July 4, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 335,642 tons, an increase of 14,833 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 580,317 tons, a decrease of 20,190 tons from last week [47]. - Downstream Industry Demands: From January to May 2025, the new housing starts area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.8%; the housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; the real estate development investment was 362.3384 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. In May 2025, the air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.48%; the household refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.72%; the household washing machine production was 9.412 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%; the freezer production was 2.01 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In May 2025, the new energy vehicle production in China was 2.649 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.7%; the sales volume was 2.686 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. In May 2025, the excavator production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%; the medium - and large - sized tractor production was 24,616 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16.64%; the small - sized tractor production was 11,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [56][61]