6月美国非农数据解读：失业率意外下降，细节暗藏隐忧

Employment Data Analysis - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, with revisions in April and May adding 16,000 jobs[1] - The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%[1] - Labor force participation rate has declined, primarily due to a drop in participation among younger workers, while the 25-54 age group saw an increase[2] Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month, falling short of expectations[2] - Average weekly hours worked have also shown a slowdown, indicating a potential cooling in labor demand[2] Sector-Specific Insights - Job growth was mainly driven by state government and healthcare sectors, with government jobs increasing by 73,000 and private sector jobs by 74,000[2] - The education sector added 40,000 jobs, likely reflecting seasonal effects[2] Labor Supply Concerns - Tightening immigration policies have led to a decrease in the number of foreign-born workers, with employment in this group declining for three consecutive months[2] - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits has been rising since April, indicating a slowdown in hiring and increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite the strong surface-level employment data, underlying issues suggest weakening labor supply and demand, leading to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and three cuts throughout the year[3] - Risks include potential changes in tariff policies and unexpected inflation increases that could affect the Fed's rate-cutting schedule[4]