Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-04 09:17Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of polypropylene futures fluctuated in the range of 7,025 - 7,120 yuan/ton. As of July 2, 2025, the PP2509 contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from last week's close [6]. - On the supply side, affected by the shutdown of plants such as Yanchang Zhongmei, this week's production decreased by 1.96% month - on - month to 773,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.86% month - on - month to 77.44%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.27% month - on - month to 48.78%. In terms of inventory, the commercial inventory of PP decreased by 0.09% month - on - month to 785,100 tons, which is at a neutral level in the same period of the past three years [6]. - In July, the overhaul capacity of PP plants remains high, but considering the large production scale from June to July, the overall supply pressure in the industry is expected to be relatively high. Next week, affected by the shutdown of plants such as Yanchang Zhongmei and Tianjin Bohua, the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline slightly. The off - season atmosphere in the downstream is strong, and the number of product order days mainly decreases. The operating rate of PP downstream industries may continue to decline slightly. Overseas demand has limited improvement. In terms of cost, the overall supply and demand of global crude oil is weak, and short - term geopolitical intensification is limited, so international oil prices are under pressure. In the short term, PP2509 is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the support around 7,030 and the pressure around 7,140 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The main contract of polypropylene futures fluctuated in the range of 7,025 - 7,120 yuan/ton, and the PP2509 contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from last week [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased, demand weakened, and inventory showed different trends. Cost and profit also changed, with oil - based and PDH - based profits improving, while coal - based profits shrinking [6]. - Outlook: In July, supply pressure is high, downstream demand is weak, and cost is under pressure. PP2509 is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price and Volume: The main contract fluctuated, and trading volume decreased [8]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: The main position changed little, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased slightly [13]. - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 monthly spreads weakened slightly, while the 5 - 9 monthly spread strengthened. The L - PP spread strengthened slightly [20][25]. 3.3 Spot Market - Spot Price: The domestic PP price in East China was around 7,170 yuan/ton [30]. - Basis: The basis shrank, and the futures market was at a discount [34]. 3.4 Upstream Market - Energy Prices: Crude oil prices fluctuated strongly, and coal prices rose slightly [38]. - Propane Price: The CIF price of propane was 545 US dollars/ton, and the spot price in Shandong was 6,610 yuan/ton [44]. - Methanol Price: The price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased to 2,470 yuan/ton [50]. 3.5 Industrial Chain - Supply: The operating rate of PP plants of petrochemical enterprises decreased, and the total inventory decreased [53][56]. - Cost and Profit: Oil - based costs decreased, coal - based costs increased slightly, and PDH - based costs decreased. Oil - based and PDH - based profits improved, while coal - based profits shrank [60][65][68]. - Import and Export: PP import was at a loss, and the import window was closed [77]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate decreased. In May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product output was 5.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of export value was - 2.0% [81][86]. 3.6 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the main PP contract was 13.24%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 10.32% [92].